Patriot Power Hour #267 - Season Finale & Mid Year Predictions Check-In!

[00:00:01] Prepper Broadcasting Network Prepper Broadcasting Network

[00:02:25] Future Dan, the editor of futuredanger.com Patriot Power Hour, it is the season finale, spring 2024 season coming to an end today, June 18th, 2024, Episode 267, Ben the Breaker of Banksters here with Future Dan.

[00:02:43] And this is a later than usual show, right before the solstice. But, it doesn't matter really how late we broadcast, anytime Patriot Power Hour is on, it's usually dark or getting dark but not this time of year, it's still in late spring, evening and it's beautiful out.

[00:03:05] Absolutely, favorite time of the year. I've decided June is my favorite month of the year, officially, unofficially. It's already going by too fast though and we are gonna be off next week. So this is gonna be our last episode in June 2024 but we'll be back on the 2nd of July, right before 4th of July.

[00:03:25] So our season opener will be right before 4th of July, a good way to kick off the summer season but that's yeah, a couple weeks from now Future Dan, what's going on right now? What's gone on over the past week since our last episode?

[00:03:39] Tonight on Patriot Power Hour, right now, I suggest what's going on is a recap of some predictions you and I made earlier this year.

[00:03:50] I like it, it's the mid year check in. We made this a little bit of a tradition on Patriot Power Hour, I think this is the 3rd year we've done it.

[00:04:00] I got a piece of paper in my hands right here. January 11th, 2024, got about a dozen bullet points with different essentially percentage guesses or our predictions, confidence levels let's say, confidence levels, percent chance levels on different items.

[00:04:27] And this is kind of like, we fact checked ourselves at the very end of the year. We go through them all and we score ourselves but we still are only less than 6 full months through so these aren't over yet but we can at least check in where we're at about halfway through.

[00:04:43] Yeah, exactly and I believe if that wasn't the spring or that would have been a winter season opener or early winter episode so right after the turn of the new year. So essentially two seasons later what do we think of what we were thinking then?

[00:05:05] That was episode 252, this is episode 266. If you guys want to go back to episode 252 wherever you find Patriot Power Hour, wherever you find Permabroadcasting Network just go search number 252. You can listen to our whole show about this but in about a little 10 minute check in here.

[00:05:25] You ready? I'll go through a couple. Yeah, just to be clear we're on 266 or 7 tonight? 267, apologies. 7 right, yep. Yeah go for it.

[00:05:39] Alright, we're going to start with my favorite Bitcoin. I said Bitcoin would be greater than 70,000 that was a 45% chance and over the last 6 months or so it did go from about 40,000 to 72,000 but it's retraced to 65k so technically I'm out of the money.

[00:06:08] But Bitcoin has been nice and then on the flip side we said there was a 25% chance that Bitcoin would crash and burn less than 30k so that seems like safe at this point.

[00:06:21] Yeah I think I made a call for specific average price for the year in the high 50s and we're at 65 now so I'm standing with that one. We'll see where we end up in December.

[00:06:36] I like it. Stick with economics and we got other things besides economics for sure. We're just a couple to start with or more like commodities, currencies, etc.

[00:06:45] So we thought gold being greater than 2500 at the time, gold was just over 2000 so we thought gold being greater than 2500 by end of the year would be upwards of 50% and the odds that gold would crash and be less than 1500 we only put it at a 10% chance.

[00:07:10] So we thought gold did not hit 2500 but it has hit a record high in the past 6 months. Also retraced a little bit like Bitcoin and we'll run through to the news but I believe gold is about 2300, 2350 I believe is about where it peaked so it's most of the way to this goal of what we thought it could be but it didn't reach it yet and again we still got 6 or 7 months to go.

[00:07:35] Yeah good one. Silver over 50 bucks or under 20 bucks we kind of put that the same as the gold ratio and silver also has had a good first half of the year. Here we go let's get a little No election being held at all.

[00:07:58] That would be because you know thermonuclear wars crushed us all or massive EMP or any reason, any reason there's no election we only put it at a 2% chance that there'd be no election and you've always given good reasons of why if certain states or areas don't get elections done they're just not guess what they're not going to be participating in the election goes on.

[00:08:23] Can you kind of explain that and do you also think about 2% chance of no election presidential election.

[00:08:32] So a completion of an election that produces electoral votes that are cast in Congress and follow all the steps of the Constitution to elect the next chief executive officer is one thing but no election like no attempt at election is probably way less than 2%.

[00:08:54] Some parts of the country will carry on right all the time everywhere even it's just the township somewhere that holds the ballot that should have happened on that day it says the election happens on.

[00:09:06] First Tuesday of November every four years so anybody that's following the Constitution can can do that right that's sort of theoretical that's the chances of it being absolutely.

[00:09:18] You know you know yeah on effective as no effect isn't isn't practice widely enough to allow you to look back and say it didn't happen well yeah 2% that's still about right and I.

[00:09:34] Hard to see a contemporary news environment moving that number right it's going to take a natural catastrophe or some some end times kind of scenario even the financial crash that wouldn't cancel elections.

[00:09:50] No no so 50 to 1 odds is what 2% translates into and Vegas ain't given anything higher than 50 to 1 odds because anything could happen almost in this crazy world of ours whether it's a football game or an election or anything.

[00:10:09] Now I will say you and I didn't necessarily agree or have to agree I don't even remember on this on these numbers on all of them so yeah maybe you know I just had 2% here or actually had less than 2% but and related but certainly separate.

[00:10:29] And here's one where I'm not sure if you agreed or not. Trump wins president elect presidential election at 40% do you recall about what you thought that percentage would be back then and what's your current read on Trump winning the election.

[00:10:49] Well it's at least that high and I don't think I doubt that number then I probably would have advocated slightly higher at the time.

[00:10:59] At the time I feel like back then I would have given it about 40 and now I give it at least 50 because tons of momentum Biden's gaffes are ridiculous people are waking up to a bunch of BS and even though I'm not a super fan of Trump even I'm getting.

[00:11:16] Warmed over by him and he's got tons of momentum and they can't steal a landslide and he's kicking ass in the polls 50% at least at this point is what I'm saying.

[00:11:32] This was kind of nebulous or maybe it's hard to tie a number to it which is so difficult for me as a finance nerd everything's a number which is trying to be a failing of mine.

[00:11:44] But we had greater I believe this is what it says greater than a 50% chance that Congress has to vote on the legitimacy.

[00:11:57] I think that's right so I think that's like a very high percentage we were putting like a greater than 50% is that kind of where we were at or what do you think now. Yeah yeah we're at 50 now and if.

[00:12:12] States start removing him from the ballot any swing states any any states that are considered reasonably in play like California New York taking them off the ballot.

[00:12:24] Probably symbolic but Wisconsin Michigan Ohio somewhere else some kind of some further lawfare that finds loopholes in in some kind of election law and removes him from ballots that could easily you know result in.

[00:12:44] Absolute mayhem mail in ballots write in ballots massive massive disputes and entire you know ledgers of state electors being determined to be invalid which should have happened last time.

[00:13:01] And that's Congress's power right to not accept you know election results at the at the state level so I think that's still about 50% chance and could be growing if they take him off of ballots anywhere. Here's. Have a two actually maybe even a three tiered. Prediction or.

[00:13:28] Something to evaluate a benchmarking. Covid vaccine effects become more widely known accepted proven. Short term effects.

[00:13:41] Now within a month of receiving the injection midterm effects within a few years and long term effects you know 3512 we can't get to 1020 years yet who knows what happens alternate mutants for all you know so.

[00:13:56] Pretty much we put in here like a high chance that negative effects of the code of vaccine pretty much on all those different timelines will become much more prevalent in 2024 I think we are even past what I expected from what I've been reading is just things coming out left and right.

[00:14:15] Well you're already attuned to news sources that have been saying this for a long time. And the hard part of you know. Making that prediction is to quantify how much more aware. People are but I. I think.

[00:14:34] Or late a little bit with Trump's rise in the polls which is fascinating to me after the big hype of operation warp speed you know seeing Fauci on display just a few weeks ago and he's sort of growing to become the.

[00:14:53] The scapegoat when you know it was Trump's administration at rush those vaccines so. I say that awareness is growing but quantified by how much. Is it.

[00:15:05] 10% more people subconsciously agree that that vaccine was rushed and unsafe and they should have taken it or you know is it 25% or 2% I don't know. That's super hard to quantify for sure. Here we go stock crash.

[00:15:29] Worse than cove it March 2020 which was huge huge crashes during that time again you can go back to the archive and listen to our shows I don't have the exact numbers on hand episode numbers but in March and April.

[00:15:45] 2020 we reviewed like the 10 worst days in the stock market and like by percentage terms and what like four or five of them on the top 10 from cove it three or four three or four were March 2020 they're right up there with October of 29. Yes. So.

[00:16:04] What's the I guess percentage odds or chance that. We will experience one of those types of crashes before the election and then after the election but before end of the year so pretty much November December of 2024.

[00:16:22] We said actually how about you guess let's see how close we can remember guess what what did we think the stock market crash equal or worse than cove it March 2020 before the election what did we pin that at.

[00:16:38] I know it was less than 50% but close to it and I think the confidence level that it would happen increased after the election.

[00:16:48] The second part is definitely right but we actually were very low we said less than 10% chance before the election but we said about a 30% chance in November December. So that's good sir. And stocks hit all time record highs today for context. Yes.

[00:17:10] So even though we are a little doom and gloom occasionally I think it's just reporting the facts a lot of times economically and otherwise but even we put the brakes on and said they don't think they're going to crash it at least cove it level before the election maybe love trouble growing it and they actually had a couple of hiccups and bumps in the road in the you know these last six months but like you just said stock market at those record highs.

[00:17:36] So has it happened yet and after the election we say there's a 30% chance. Find out. Couple more. Yep. We're watching break every week. Another are we wrapped up for January you got one more.

[00:17:54] We got a couple more and yes some of these are obviously in progress some are well we won't really know till the election because this is kind of pushed towards election but massive claim of election fraud equal to or greater than 2020. We put that as greater than 90%.

[00:18:14] Yeah, I'm sticking with that that's that's coming. Now here's one that I wish I put a number on I don't have I might go re listen to that show to 52 but China invades Taiwan. I did not have a number there so I hope we talked about it.

[00:18:34] What do you think the chances between now and the end of the year that China moves on Taiwan what percent you give that.

[00:18:44] I think it depends on if Biden's reelected and if Biden's reelected that number skyrockets still pretty low just because the task of invading that island and what Ukraine was able to do with airborne and space born in you know ISR to target the invasion.

[00:19:07] You know trying to cross that Taiwan Strait would be much harder than just rolling into Eastern Ukraine and it could bog down fast so I don't think the military situation is changing very fast.

[00:19:23] But if they thought there was a regime in Washington DC that wouldn't have the energy or order to to oppose. They could see the beginning of a body of four years of Biden and they may not expect him to live it out.

[00:19:38] That could be conceived of is the right time to attempt to do it if they dared. Great analysis I'd currently put this at less than 10 percent but I feel like between now and let's just call it 2030 so five six years from now.

[00:19:55] I think it's like a one out of three or one out of four chance that's like extremely high. Does not sound like much over five six years oh one in four chance and five years.

[00:20:06] Oh that's nothing though but trust me this would make this would be bigger than covid on the impact on the economy minimum. So as soon as that risk got that high there's a fair chance Taiwan would announce itself as a nuclear state with an arsenal.

[00:20:26] And then let's see if it happens after that because I don't think nuclear countries nuclear countries don't fight. All right folks haven't yet. That was our partial look back and partial look forward. Twenty twenty four predictions on Patriot power hour.

[00:20:48] It ain't over yet ain't over till the last episode. Actually we do the evaluation in January so it's not over to the first episode of January twenty five I suppose.

[00:20:59] Got a while to go till then but good stuff you stand we're going to go to break and come back with a news blitz. What do you say? Blitz the news then you got it. All right.

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[00:22:28] Again that's the preppers medical handbook by William W. Forge. A person who advocates and practices preparedness one ready for any event that would disrupt their daily routine. That is a prepper. This life has many shades.

[00:23:03] I wake up every morning and before I start each day I take a drag from last night's cigarette that's smoldered in its tray. Down a little something then be on my way. Patriot power hour time for that news blitz June 18th 2024 episode two six seven season finale.

[00:24:31] Here we go. Florida congressional candidate suggests spent suspending habeas corpus for Trump to arrest Democrats. Chinese cyber police agent runs online network helping illegal immigrants flood into the U.S. Chinese may be probing American military readiness through base breaches.

[00:25:00] Lawmaker says eight suspected illegal alien terrorists arrested in New York Philly and L.A. January 6th Capitol Police chief says speaker staff blocked additional security which was requested. Dozens of North Korean soldiers repeatedly breach the DMZ.

[00:25:26] Hezbollah rains rockets on Israel after strike kills commander Google API leaks reveal search giant rigs results for covid.

[00:25:44] If you were avid listener patriot power hour you know that came out last week but now there's some add on to it which actually increased to the maximum S.H.T.F.

[00:25:55] level or grade and I H caught feeding gain of function disinfo to journalists and Federal Reserve chair admits Fed government is overstating jobs.

[00:26:07] So just more and more news blatantly censored not just the Google leaks but National Institute of Health and I H caught feeding gain of function disinfo to

[00:26:17] journalists as well as the Fed admitting that Federal Reserve that is I mean that the Federal Government is overstating jobs and their job reports. Let's go on to a little more economics not much relatively quiet but also increases in most of the markets.

[00:26:45] Maybe not the gold silver Bitcoin down a few points percentage points last week. Home foreclosures on the rise by 2034 the Federal Government that's going to exceed 50 trillion. That's a prediction we're going to make the over under on Federal Government 50 trillion.

[00:27:12] Going to mark that down to remember talk about the future Dan consumer prices up 3.3 percent they're bragging about inflation is down.

[00:27:24] You know it's not as bad as it used to be blah blah blah 3.3 percent is still a lot Massachusetts had an hours long the entire state or commonwealth 9 11 system 9 1 1 is down for hours and hours and hours for the government declares emergency a state is swamped by heavy rain.

[00:27:52] I think they said more than a month worth of rain in an hour Sarasota something like that maybe even more rare drug resistant flu variant found in the US.

[00:28:08] Not much seismic activity or asteroid activity seems natural disasters are as always knock on wood and not hitting strongly right now. Future Dan that's the news blitz.

[00:28:30] Yeah awesome so several of those we need to get into the details but out of this blitz screen some of these active indicators yeah more prediction summer predictions are in order. Summer predictions so. Start with.

[00:28:49] Korean War restarting that's actually the name of indicator Korean War restarts of low grade lowest possible topical news dozens of North Korean soldiers breaching the demilitarized zone.

[00:29:06] I asked you in the past in the past we haven't done the percentage odds and all that type of stuff but do you think I asked you do you think the Korean War restarting is the same.

[00:29:22] You know it goes one in one hand in hand with Taiwan and China or do you think it's more likely Korean Wars can restart or more likely Taiwan's going to be attacked.

[00:29:35] I think it's about another way to frame the question is what's the what's the chances it doesn't start and I think it's like 85 80 85% chance we don't see the you know the Sino Taiwanese conflict begin.

[00:29:57] In the next six to 12 months but that number might be a little bit higher or a little bit lower I think I think you know high 70s mid 75 if other conditions you know cascade right if nothing else changes and things go the way they are we're not going to see a war in either of those theaters

[00:30:20] but there's financial collapse and election chaos in the United States a war in Korea is to me more likely than Taiwan invasion.

[00:30:31] So I'm putting this down for posterity sake about a 75% chance that there's not going to be a restarting of the Korean War between now and let's just call it June 2025.

[00:30:47] Yeah 25% chance it does that's high that's high but I mean I'm not saying wrong per se but I mean like 25% chance Korean War starts.

[00:30:58] Wow well what are the Koreans do North Korea is doing today yesterday breach in the DMZ like that regime does that stuff and Putin's in the Capitol tonight so maybe they think they can do that because the Russian president's entering North Korean airspace

[00:31:17] and they're they provoke right I mean the Koreans could go at it much sooner than most other places on earth now.

[00:31:27] How far does that war escalate right it's just a truce they've had skirmishes they've shot each other's boats if that commandos come out of North Korea and wreck havoc in the south.

[00:31:38] How it could be a low intensity resumption of the Korean War okay but those sides are have a much higher probability of going at it and on a clandestine and limited basis and probably I'd have you know Israel and Iran and Iranian proxies are order of magnitude more likely they're doing it.

[00:31:54] Constantly pretty much now but anywhere else on earth to seriously well armed nations like North and South Korea the only other place that might have the same propensity to be a hot spot in my opinion is India Pakistan.

[00:32:11] You read my mind because I was actually going to ask you what were your percentages on that or do you think that's even scoring on the Richter scale.

[00:32:21] We haven't heard a lot of news from there lately but there's been a lot of cross border exchanges of fire for many decades so you got to know that that's there and they're both nuclear armed countries.

[00:32:33] I was going to pick two nuclear armed belligerents who might just do it India and Pakistan are near the top of that list because their arsenals are at risk of each other right and especially Pakistan use it or lose it kind of makes sense.

[00:32:55] With their nuclear arsenal would you know it's different right. China doesn't have a use or lose it mentality nor do we nor do the Russians nor does any nation that has you know submarine launched missiles that are nuclear armed right you have that retaliatory capability.

[00:33:11] And India and Pakistan I'm not I'm sure India has nukes on you know capable Navy I'm not sure what Pakistan is able to do in that regard so that's that's a lot less stable and we think North Korea has nuclear arms but not many.

[00:33:27] And I'm not I'm sure India has nukes on you know capable Navy I'm not sure what Pakistan is able to do in that regard so that's that's a lot less stable and we think North Korea has nuclear arms but not many.

[00:33:42] So you know they too would be at a use or lose kind of risk if they thought that even conventional strikes advanced hypersonic conventional strikes could put all of their nuclear weapons that they may have in the dozens I think or less than 100 and who knows how functional they are.

[00:34:01] If they perceive the threat that any of that could be wiped out in a preemptive strike they might they might decide to do their own preemptive strike so the Koreas Pakistan India and of course the Middle East Israel against Iran.

[00:34:20] Those are all real hotspots that have higher than much higher than what we would have predicted before Russia went into Ukraine that Russian Ukrainian war is really destabilizing the other regions because the thresholds are getting crossed.

[00:34:37] Blood is blood is getting let people governments are are are coming you know inclined to resort to force in ways that we haven't seen since the end of World War Two. Over 10 window of warfare is moving pretty quick even huh.

[00:34:55] That that would be the fear that you know you know when Pax Americana ends when our nuclear umbrella and our force to stabilize we have like all time high number of troops in Jordan right now if they will remove from Jordan and other places in the Middle East.

[00:35:14] The region would come apart the seams so a couple numbers on try to get from yet will stay on Israel and Iran let's just say Israel and Iran or just the very same.

[00:35:26] The various parties involved I guess you could even throw in Yemen and just the overall Middle East but let's just say that that quagmire over there that cluster you know what over there.

[00:35:40] What is the percentage chance it'll be worse in the next 12 months compared to what it was the most recent 12 months because it it went pretty crazy you know since October of last year sort of cooled off we got a couple topical you know there was a.

[00:35:55] Commander killed and a couple attacks back but long story short do you think it's cooled off or do you think it'll be equal or worse in the next 12 months.

[00:36:08] Well let's define worse right we got baseline that so just a month or so ago Israel and Iran were striking each other with missiles so worse than that same or worse than that.

[00:36:22] Yes yes let's just say same or worse than that if that can be direct attacks on each other's territory and kidnappings and killings and inside Israel as well as what they're doing in Gaza so throwing that all together plus all the money put in their aid and weaponry and otherwise.

[00:36:41] Otherwise all just all of it rolled into one super hard to quantify but you know will it maintain or get worse or is it actually going to ease off a little bit you know maybe it come back in five or 10 years or you think it's going to really pop off.

[00:36:55] I think the conflict in Gaza is going to wind down I think the exchange of fire on each other's territory and open way as a 80% or higher chance of repeating itself in the next 12 months. 80% or higher chance of repeating itself in the next 12 months.

[00:37:14] Perfect I think it's a pretty high number and probably about right. Pakistan and India war how do you quantify war whatever we quantify the Korea war restarting.

[00:37:30] Let's quantify that with Pakistan India so you said there's a 75% chance of no war in the next 12 months between the Koreas whether it's clandestine or nuclear or anything in between what about Pakistan and India.

[00:37:45] 75 to 80% about the same and that 20 to 25% is of chance of war is much higher now because of what could come about in the United States right if our command and control and our peaceful. Hand off of political power through elections is in doubt.

[00:38:11] Then then these parts of the world's could decide to you know take strategic advantage of the lack of decisiveness in America and that's why those are elevated but still you know 80% chance there isn't a war they are nuclear armed countries.

[00:38:29] They have huge populations immediately at risk of an exchange of those zooks. But that you know the fundamental difference between Pakistan and India Iran Israel Israel and all of its neighbors the Koreas.

[00:38:46] You know it's very fundamental like the basic you know differences on what is Ukraine between Russian separatists and the Kiev regime and the regime in Moscow right and that that is a full-blown conventional war right now.

[00:39:06] So we have an article 8 suspected illegal alien terrorists arrested in New York Philly and LA between now and this time next year. Let's keep on 12 month.

[00:39:22] What are the odds that here in US territory domestically there's terror attack or attacks plural with a cumulative death toll of 2000 or more. I would hope that something like that or even something 10% the size of that would break the back of willpower to have the FBI exist.

[00:39:47] In both political parties and for that reason because institutions protect themselves. I'm thinking that the chances of that kind of strike in the United States are on an all-time low.

[00:40:02] Now if the FBI is thoroughly corrupt as some suspect and the deep state is thoroughly tied together and institutional prerogatives and congressional oversight and funding have no meaning to what really goes on.

[00:40:16] I can't guess that number but assuming that that network although highly frayed and seated with deep deep deep distrust now is there.

[00:40:29] I still think that the powers that be would have enough wherewithal to prevent something like that and after 9-11 one of the to me one of the strongest.

[00:40:41] Circumstantial pieces of evidence that it could have been an inside job is the fact that it hadn't happened since that apparently.

[00:40:52] It wasn't very difficult to prevent an attack like that right so if it happened now there's no way the FBI walks away looking like it tried its best and there's nothing they can do to stop it.

[00:41:06] I hope you're right I'm give a percentage you want to put it on we don't have to agree I could put yours or mine I think I'm gonna put mine at about. Gosh 15% people getting killed. You're talking about a 9-11 equivalent type fate lethal attack.

[00:41:29] Or multiple could be like 8 or 10 shopping malls attacked all at once I mean it could be organized by state actors even. So you're putting out what chance. I'm struggling between about 10 and 15%. But I think it's very possible. But I think it's very possible.

[00:41:53] You know whether that's a sleeper cell attack by China whether that's inside job by Democrats whether it's just some cycle able to car bomb. Football stadium and kill 2000 people in the parking lot three hours before game. I mean. I mean.

[00:42:11] Crowd behavior where more than one of those happens you know at the same time but not directly linked. Yeah I would go higher than 10% if they knock out power for.

[00:42:23] 96 hours to LA or New York somehow there'll be 2000 people dead so I would include oh well that's a whole different kind of prediction now isn't it pairing these things and putting.

[00:42:35] Second order effect if a grid down occurs what's the percentage chance of this well now obviously it's skyrockets right. So it would be had to be a specific terror attack I mean so that is that's a good point.

[00:42:50] I mean I should probably say you know it's more of a direct death so we're thinking more of a 9-11 rather than a you know taken down the grid. I was actually thinking more like three or four of these events like all the same day.

[00:43:05] Potentially so a few hundred for each one I mean the Vegas shooter there was 100 plus dead and you know mass shooters a few of them can easily kill 100 200 people at each location you know if half of NFL stadiums were attacked on the same day.

[00:43:21] There would be hundreds dead if not thousands so I hope they don't do that hope the FBI is stopping that type of crap but I'm putting at 10 to 15% and in the past I would put it at about you know 3 to 5%.

[00:43:35] But I'm doubling maybe tripling it because of the instability of domestic and geopolitical.

[00:43:43] So there's some kind of you know looking at some kind of knock on effect where during a heat wave sleeper cells had managed to find a way to interrupt power supply to large regions or large metropolitan areas.

[00:44:01] You can reach 2000 dead just from you know the number of people that live at home are you know with you know medical equipment that has to be powered right.

[00:44:10] And then pharmacies being out and people missing you know you know critical drugs hard to measure you wouldn't come up with a number for that immediately, but it would be you know it come out in the statistics that that area suffered.

[00:44:25] You know some kind of mortality rate that spiked and is it you know consequently it killed 2000 you can estimate.

[00:44:31] So if you look at it like a knock on effect of you know this combined to that to result in this yeah every time you do like if that happens plus that now you get to that kind of death toll. It the curve is you know exponential.

[00:44:48] I will not be going to any sporting events or large gatherings of more than 50 people anytime in the near future definitely not until at least January of next year after the swearing in of either precedent if it occurs.

[00:45:03] I just feel like wow it's just a time of chaos right now but some people say don't live in fear and all that but at least have an escape plan or carry concealed if you're able to in those locations.

[00:45:16] Anything else on the terror attack I think that was most of the predictions or did you have any other categories or news articles that you would like to see? See where it's going to be in 12 months. How's the time?

[00:45:30] Well we're going to go off of active indicators tonight but we're not going to dwell on the headlines we already blitzed them tonight.

[00:45:37] But just read me a list of some other indicators that are active tonight and we'll take a shot at some kind of percentage chance that they're active. Black on red grade one happening now. Let's go with 9-1-1 overwhelmed a rare indicator on future danger.

[00:45:57] Let's go look at the long term history it's shown up a few times but not often only a few times. 9-1-1 by the way no SHTF level articles so it's never actualized at that highest grade. What do you think the chance is?

[00:46:15] 9-1-1 what would you say is the chance of 9-1-1? 9-1-1 is the chance of 9-1-1. 9-1-1 is the chance of 9-1-1. 9-1-1 overwhelmed and what percentage do you think in the next 12 months?

[00:46:49] Well if it had not been brought back online within a few hours it would be grade one from Massachusetts right now. A very dangerous situation in the modern world right?

[00:47:02] Definitely and the more we rely on these things and 9-1-1 is a great thing to help people but most people don't plan for a backup if 9-1-1 doesn't work. They're going to be kind of screwed sometimes.

[00:47:16] It's the criminal terror that would be completely possible and the people that would do that realizing that now is the time. That's what makes it dangerous. What's your percentage chance on SHTF level 9-1-1 overwhelmed?

[00:47:37] Never happened during future dangers life but what do you think that will change in the next year? I don't think it's ever happened in a state wide fashion.

[00:47:46] So what we saw tonight was probably a glitch, maybe a hack but if it ever went on for any amount of time it would be really bad for that area.

[00:47:56] I'd say it's a 10% chance in 2024 in blue states and if you had a knock on effect of other very severe indicators it could be overwhelmed not only because the system failed internally but too many people call it at the same time right?

[00:48:18] That's exactly what I was thinking actually. If we have a chaotic election I think that goes from a 10% chance up to 30-40% chance during rioting that follows election disputes.

[00:48:50] I don't know if it's a cyber attack or some other issue but too many people trying to call seems like just as reasonable or more reasonable than any of them. What else is active tonight? Let's go with federal government defaults.

[00:49:06] That chance in the next 12 months is near zero because they just won't admit it. Whether the math really said they were, it would take longer than a year for them to ever admit it. So this indicator requires everybody to openly recognize that the US government defaulted.

[00:49:28] But earlier you teased the possibility of predicting the chance of hitting federal government 50 trillion in debt. The headline tonight says 10 years from now but I think what would be interesting is to hear from you Ben, what year are you going to take the over 50% chance?

[00:49:50] I like this. This is going to be one of my favorite ones ever I think. Well just before we do that I went back into the archive. Going back to May 4th 2017. This is 6 months before we even started Patriot Power Hour.

[00:50:06] And this is back then May 4th 2017, 7 years ago, a little more. Cost of interest on federal government debt rises to above half a trillion dollars. And just around that same time as when we hit 20 trillion in debt. Today, go to the handy dandy US debt clock.

[00:50:31] In about 7 years we've gone from 20 trillion to I think 34. Let's check for sure. Yeah, 34.8. We're almost at 35. So we've gone 15 trillion. Let's just round it. 15 trillion in 7 years. That's 2 trillion a year. So we need another 16. 15 or 16 trillion to get to that 50.

[00:50:59] If at the same pace it would be about 7 or 8 years from now. They're saying 10. They're totally sandbagging. It's really going to be 5. I'm going to say... January 1st, 2028 is my over under on 50. Yep. I agree with that. I'm with you on that.

[00:51:24] And by the way, so I'm going to write that down first. 1,1,2028 equals the big 50 trail. What's the 50th anniversary? Is it the gold anniversary or diamond? Like at work or even your wedding anniversary. 50 years. You get a diamond anniversary. Your silver anniversary is 5 years or 10. 50 trillion. Fiat reserve.

[00:51:57] Now, I will say it's possible that everything collapses and we go to a CDC before we even hit that number. That would probably kick it a lot higher than 50 trillion before everything comes crashing down. Real quick on the amount of interest.

[00:52:16] So we went from again 20 trillion to 35 trillion in about 7 years. And we went from about half a trillion in interest costs every year to... I'm trying to find where it is. I know it's like more than 2 trillion.

[00:52:38] My point is the interest on the debt is growing way more than the debt even. So not only are we going to go way higher on the debt, the amount of interest we pay on the debt is going to increase even faster.

[00:52:51] Which is pretty much why it's the death knell of the system. Because we can't even pay our bills now so you just keep compounding the interest rate. I mean if you had a credit card and you couldn't even pay the minimum payments,

[00:53:02] you know where that's going to go. Before you know it, you're going to hit the limit and it's going to break. But they don't have to have a limit because of the central banks at least for now. Everyone believes in them.

[00:53:13] But the emperor with no clothes situation might be happening soon. We're already seeing different commodities being priced in different currencies. Saudi Arabia said the petrodollar is dunzo. China and Russia trading amongst themselves. A lot of other countries are using each other's currencies.

[00:53:28] There's not going to be one currency that replaces necessarily right away. It's not going to be the yuan necessarily. But just getting away from the US dollar is going to be bad enough. Yep. Got any other active indicators you want to make a prediction on tonight?

[00:53:48] Let's go with... 267 of the patriot power hour. What do you got? That has been a great one so far. Marshall Law declared. Hmm. Higher than I would like it to be in the next six months with this election, that's for sure.

[00:54:12] Still less than 50% without any kind of knock on events. But you know of course governors can declare Marshall Law, call out the National Guard, suspend certain civil liberties and restore control. Nationwide Marshall Law or state Marshall Law, that's the question.

[00:54:35] The chances of a state Marshall Law kind of you know behaviors, you know just you know detention without you know necessarily bringing people through their Fifth Amendment rights to bring them before court in a timely fashion.

[00:54:50] You know arraignments and stuff. The breakdown of the courts enough that you'd say hey that really is Marshall Law. Pretty high this year. Pretty high and if they take Trump off the ballots, people really really dispute certain elections. Those states could end up that way.

[00:55:10] So how about just one governor declares it? What odds would you give that? Probably about 45. Okay. For at least a week. Okay. Okay. Yeah we're not talking about the declaration of Marshall Law permanently in our lifetimes. That's still incredibly low chance but not zero.

[00:55:40] Right that kind of goes to the maybe the 2% chance. We were talking about earlier some real bad stuff happening potentially. Hey depends how Mad Max you want to get it, we say that sometimes we try to hit a little bit more in the middle of the bell curve.

[00:55:56] National. Now I don't know if you want to say this is a majority of states or a majority of states by population or every single state. What would you consider national Marshall Law and what percentage would that be?

[00:56:10] Oh it wouldn't be, it would just not be done at the national at the state level. It would be the federal government, the president. Can you do that? I guess you could at a nuclear war but I don't know. Okay.

[00:56:23] Well read the history of the Lincoln presidency or Wilson or FDR during World War II. There's lots of aspects to Marshall Law and all three of them had to do it during those wars. Great points so it's already having multiple times what's the percentage you got on this?

[00:56:42] If at least one state doing it for at least one week, it was 45%. What about nationwide? I think it's extremely low chance if Trump wins because he might not get obeyed by the powers that are resident in there right? They're just find ways to subvert him.

[00:57:01] Biden though with the right knock on effects from other crises it's higher right? We'd be in Marshall Law immediately if China invaded Taiwan by the way so think about that. Great point. It's almost the cumulative effect of any of these huge, huge terror attacks, wars, power outages.

[00:57:26] And letting tens of thousands of military-age Chinese men into the country. I mean if there was any idea that any advanced force operations, sabotage being done by covert forces of other governments in the country

[00:57:43] our population would be screaming for the Marshall Law to put an end to it. And that goes hand in hand with, I wasn't even going to ask for percentages per se but you hit on it before I even could, foreign black ops suspected.

[00:57:57] I mean it's kind of, you know maybe you have something different to talk about with foreign black ops suspected but I think that can go hand in hand with Marshall Law, the terrorism that we were talking about potentially.

[00:58:08] All the reasons by the way why you all should be prepping out there. Exactly. I think that's about it. We're coming up on a full hour on the season finale.

[00:58:20] Got any other topics to hit on, predictions to make or things to say before we sign off for the season and come back in July? One more measurable. One more economic measurable.

[00:58:32] I'm going to let you pick. It could be the VIX, the Volatility Index, the fear gauge or the DXY, the dollar exchange of basket of five international currencies. You can pick the direction of the VIX or the DXY, up or down. Down on the DXY is bad.

[00:58:54] US is losing its purchasing power abroad. Quality of life in America is going down if it breaks under 70.

[00:59:02] We're in historically bad territory and the VIX, if it skyrockets it's going to happen during a massive crash on Wall Street or right before it, up around 50-60 on the VIX and it's trouble time. Make your call Ben.

[00:59:20] I'm going to go with the VIX. The dollar is definitely a tough one and I don't even know if I can make a good call on it. The VIX though, it's real low right now. It's 12.3. To put that in perspective, it peaked at 85 in COVID.

[00:59:39] In 2008 financial crisis it peaked at 89. It was actually higher during Lehman Brothers and all that. The thing is they halted all that trading in COVID so that's probably the only reason it wasn't worse. Anyway, with that said, it's usually below 40 and often below 20.

[01:00:03] 40 is dangerous already. Below 20 is most of the time. Yes, but it does cross 40 at least once every couple years on average. And volatility can be high or low. It's usually low with VIX spikes. I mean it's dropping, it's a crash. But volatility can go up to it.

[01:00:31] Let's just say at 80. The only times in the last two decades that it's higher than 80 is the 2008 financial crisis and COVID. So in the next 12 months will VIX go above 80? I think might be a good measure. Percent chance, do you want to make the call?

[01:00:52] Yeah, now it doesn't have to stay at 80 because if everything drops 70% and then it stabilizes then the VIX will drop again. But it's kind of where it peaked at is what I'm looking at. I'm going to say...

[01:01:04] 80 would be a financial crisis without a doubt. That's a crash on Wall Street. You don't get to 80 without all kinds of other economic indicators hitting black on red grade one. So in a neutral setting I would say that's at least a 1 in 20 year event normally.

[01:01:21] But with everything going on and the fact we haven't seen it, I think we're kind of due for it with these higher interest rates, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. Running out of time. I'm going to say 33% chance.

[01:01:35] So 1 in 3 chance and the next 12 months we see 80 plus on the VIX. Yep, I'd take the over on that. Hey, you know what? I probably would too. We got to lure some people in on the other side of the bet. That's an odds maker.

[01:01:54] But 33% chance that the VIX peaks above 80. Again, it's only done like twice in the last couple decades. So 33% chance in of itself is super high. Your average guy on CNBC would say I'm a total psychopath. Totally wrong.

[01:02:12] But I do put my money where my mouth is so there you go. Feature Dan, I think that's the end of the season. Back to breaker, I do too. Great season, great show as always. Enjoy the start of summer.

[01:02:26] We'll be back with something special for the 4th of July pre-show. Yes sir, yes sir. And we do reserve the right always to come back live if anything crazy does happen, very newsworthy or otherwise.

[01:02:42] So just because we're planning to be off next week or two doesn't mean we might not just show up if there's a huge event somewhere in the US or even worldwide. Otherwise, it's been great. Talk to you soon. Enjoy your early summer evenings like we did tonight.

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