Patriot Power Hour #290 - 2025 Predictions, Season Opener & More

[00:00:09] What do you want? Statement of purpose? Should I email you? Should I put this on your action item list? You decide your own level of involvement!

[00:00:19] We are the Prepper Broadcasting Network.

[00:00:22] Now listening to the Patriot Power Hour, the newest show of the Prepper Broadcasting Network.

[00:01:13] This live episode features the situational awareness you need to practice self-reliance and independence.

[00:01:21] Introducing your hosts, Ben, the Breaker of Banksters, and Future Dan, the editor of FutureDanger.com

[00:01:30] We are live and it is 2025, January 9th, 2025.

[00:01:36] To be precise, Ben, the Breaker of Banksters here with Future Dan. Episode 290, Future Dan.

[00:01:45] Happy New Year. How are you doing?

[00:01:46] Doing alright. Glad to make it to 25. Hopefully we'll make it beyond as well.

[00:01:53] You know what? We got a lot going on, but I will say this for those who are interested.

[00:01:59] There is a video broadcast and the goal of all 25, my New Year's resolution for Patriot Power Hour,

[00:02:05] is to have a video broadcast that accompanies this podcast.

[00:02:10] So you'll be able to follow along with the articles we review.

[00:02:14] And if you're looking at the screen right now, you'll see several memes, graphics, and other information in a visual form.

[00:02:23] Some from Future Danger, some from long ago in the archives.

[00:02:28] So we're going to bring the visual to Patriot Power Hour this year, sir.

[00:02:32] Yeah, we got natural or perhaps man-made disaster underway in California tonight.

[00:02:40] But besides that, not a lot of international economic or security liberty news, which I think is pretty typical after the holidays.

[00:02:54] I mean, just a lot of news has been generated, not a lot of headlines.

[00:03:00] It doesn't mean there's not a lot going on in the back room, but we are limited to open source intelligence.

[00:03:06] So we're going to talk about the heat map dashboard really quickly.

[00:03:10] But the main thrust of our season premiere of winter 2025 involves predictions.

[00:03:19] A relatively new tradition.

[00:03:22] I think we started this.

[00:03:24] How long ago did we start this tradition, Ben?

[00:03:26] We definitely did it in 23 and 24.

[00:03:29] We might have done it in 22.

[00:03:31] I'm not 100% sure.

[00:03:34] So three or four years, about half as long as we've been on, at least as long, half as long as we've been on PBN.

[00:03:42] So we're going to make predictions now.

[00:03:44] We're going to check in on them at the end of the spring season in June, end of June, and then see how we did by next December, which is exactly what we just did last year.

[00:03:59] And you're taking it to a whole new level.

[00:04:01] So maybe you can give the audience an overview of the predictions.

[00:04:06] Then we're going to jump into the heat map dashboard and come back and make those predictions.

[00:04:12] Exactly.

[00:04:13] We're going to hit this dashboard, spend 10, maybe 15 minutes going through it as well as some of the articles therein.

[00:04:20] But, hey, two weeks until Trump's inauguration.

[00:04:26] Got a feeling the news will really pick up thereafter, but a little bit of a lull here after the holidays, except for, yes, those fires in California.

[00:04:35] We'll talk all about that and some other important news.

[00:04:38] But the main thrust of today's show, yes, episode 290 of the Patriot Power Hour, first of the season, first of the year predictions.

[00:04:48] We got 19 categories.

[00:04:51] Probably outdid ourselves maybe not even in a good way, but we'll find out.

[00:04:56] In the past, we did about 10 or 12 predictions.

[00:04:58] We got 19, so we're going to have to go pretty quickly.

[00:05:00] But those that are watching the video, I'm going to have them all written out, and we're going to keep that document again.

[00:05:06] Look at it at the end of June and look at it again in December.

[00:05:10] And for all we know, maybe in a few years, take a little blast to the past, take a look at it as well.

[00:05:17] Digital lasts forever, as long as there's not an EMP that wipes everything.

[00:05:21] But don't worry, I got pretty good backups.

[00:05:23] So anyway, yes, we will be going through those predictions, but we're going to have to be pithy.

[00:05:27] But you want to hit that news first?

[00:05:31] Yeah.

[00:05:32] One more word on the predictions.

[00:05:34] Yeah.

[00:05:34] I look at this as a way to kind of fine-tune your and my perspective on real threats to the country.

[00:05:44] So if we have an inflated sense of the probability of something happening, by next December, we're going to know that, right?

[00:05:53] But that's actually not what happened.

[00:05:55] So if you check out the previous episode, 289, where we recapped our predictions for last year, we were pretty close on most of them, I would have to say.

[00:06:08] But especially the financial, I mean, Bitcoin as well as gold both hit the high end and we were looking for both those to go up.

[00:06:17] We were looking for a Fed pivot, which they did, meaning they started to lower interest rates, which funny enough has resulted in interest rates going up.

[00:06:25] Has the Fed lost control? We might talk about that down the line.

[00:06:29] So financially, we pretty much, I'm not going to say knocked it out of the ballpark, but definitely got a solid double or triple last year.

[00:06:38] And other ones we did pretty well too.

[00:06:40] And it's not what we want to happen.

[00:06:42] It's our predictions or thoughts.

[00:06:44] So would Trump get elected?

[00:06:46] Would there be a controversial election, et cetera, et cetera?

[00:06:50] We thought there was a decent chance that going through December 31st, 2024, it would still be a lot of controversy who was president.

[00:06:59] We missed on that, but I'm pretty happy that we missed on that a bit.

[00:07:06] Yeah, let's do the heat map dashboard.

[00:07:08] Would you please bring us through what's happening in Southern California tonight, Ben?

[00:07:13] All right.

[00:07:14] Transitioning on over.

[00:07:15] Yeah, we have five, six articles at least under wildfires.

[00:07:26] Lay waste.

[00:07:28] LA wildfire rages out of control.

[00:07:31] Hydrants are dry.

[00:07:33] Equipment is low.

[00:07:35] Manpower as well.

[00:07:37] 0% containment of a lot of these fires.

[00:07:41] And there's multiple fires popping up, potentially arson.

[00:07:44] Palisades and Eton wildfires burned out of control.

[00:07:48] Those were some of the hardest hit.

[00:07:50] You know, as of 12, 16, 24 hours ago, it was reported 1,100 buildings were destroyed.

[00:07:58] Now it's 2,000.

[00:07:59] 2,000 buildings destroyed.

[00:08:02] Over 130,000 evacuated.

[00:08:05] So it's become quite the problem.

[00:08:11] Moving on, there is an earthquake.

[00:08:14] And one thing I wanted to point out is what if there's a massive earthquake in a bunch of fires in LA?

[00:08:19] They obviously were not prepared for that either.

[00:08:21] But in Tibet, 53 dead after 7.1 magnitude earthquake.

[00:08:29] Fluoride in the drinking water once again scrutinized for possible effect on child intelligence.

[00:08:35] So natural news, the nature column.

[00:08:40] Natural indicators, easily the highest severity and frequency this week.

[00:08:47] Economics, wholesale egg prices hit record.

[00:08:50] Shortages reported at supermarkets.

[00:08:54] I'll be visiting NBC guy Dave Jones to get some eggs tomorrow.

[00:08:57] I hope he doesn't raise the prices on me.

[00:08:59] But you know, it is what it is.

[00:09:01] Ha ha ha.

[00:09:03] Inflation skyrockets.

[00:09:05] More articles to support that.

[00:09:08] Fed officials now worried about the inflation impacts from Trump's policies.

[00:09:13] Yeah.

[00:09:14] Trump had some words about that.

[00:09:18] Other indications that inflation is not going to be going away at any point soon.

[00:09:23] But we're also seeing unemployment.

[00:09:26] When you see inflation and unemployment both trending poorly, that's a really bad situation.

[00:09:32] And well, not only are we seeing just general layoffs start to creep up, but the AI, it's, you know, the future is now.

[00:09:44] And within the next five years by 2030, 41% of companies worldwide plan to reduce workforces.

[00:09:53] So learn how to work with AI or find something AI can't do in the near future or potentially be replaced.

[00:10:03] Riots erupt related to wildfires under security.

[00:10:09] 20 suspects arrested for looting homes ravaged by wildfires.

[00:10:13] So not only potential arson or copycats, people trying to be like the Joker or something, start fires because there's just so much chaos already.

[00:10:22] We've got tons of looting going on.

[00:10:25] So that's the dashboard for today.

[00:10:27] Future Dan.

[00:10:35] Future Dan, come in, sir.

[00:10:39] Yeah.

[00:10:39] Sorry, I was on mute.

[00:10:40] It's all right.

[00:10:41] Trying to keep a good background to our amateur podcast here.

[00:10:45] But yeah, that's a man-made disaster in Southern California policies upon policies.

[00:10:53] But the indicator stands.

[00:10:56] The title of the indicator is wildfires lay waste.

[00:10:59] It's certainly happening now.

[00:11:01] I hadn't even thought about what if an earthquake happened at the same time, but a bad enough earthquake could easily create fires like this.

[00:11:10] You know, that's what I bet.

[00:11:12] Right.

[00:11:13] Exactly.

[00:11:13] Exactly.

[00:11:13] Like literally just, just only an earthquake.

[00:11:15] None of this arson or wildfires or bad weather.

[00:11:18] Just literally big ass earthquake.

[00:11:20] San Francisco burned down in like 1908 or something.

[00:11:24] That was the major damage was the fire.

[00:11:26] Not even earthquake as much.

[00:11:27] And of course they could not respond to that.

[00:11:31] Look at this is not, at least this started as less than a 8.0, 8.5, the big one, 9.0.

[00:11:39] That would lay waste LA even worse than this.

[00:11:44] Yeah.

[00:11:45] So don't live in LA.

[00:11:47] If you're a prepper, probably beyond that.

[00:11:51] Yeah.

[00:11:51] I was going to say like, what advice could you have?

[00:11:54] Uh, you can't, you can't plan a bug out for an earthquake and or the fires.

[00:12:00] They just instantly happen.

[00:12:02] Right.

[00:12:03] But, um, definitely, uh, feeling, you know, feeling for our fellow Americans that are suffering and losing their homes tonight in Southern California as well.

[00:12:14] Uh, just another natural disaster is string of them in the last couple of years that are, have been very severe.

[00:12:21] Uh, everything else on the news map is pretty run of the mill.

[00:12:25] Don't you think?

[00:12:27] Well, I do want to hit on the fluoride effects cause it is the highest grade possible SHTF.

[00:12:33] This is NBC news.

[00:12:35] So, Hey, if you think someone tries to say prepper broadcasts and network or Patriot power, our fake news conspiracy, how about we just go straight to NBC news on this?

[00:12:45] You know, when people tried to say, I'm some sort of conspiracy theorist, all that crap because of fluoride.

[00:12:51] Well, NBC news is saying fluoride scrutinized for possible effect on children's brains.

[00:12:58] Yes.

[00:13:00] Lowering IQ and children.

[00:13:02] And they come out and say the pediatric dentist adamant that the mineral is critical for kids health.

[00:13:08] But I've said this many, many times over topical fluoride on the teeth is different than putting fluoride in unknown dosages into your drinking water, as well as fluoride being used in all types of processed foods.

[00:13:22] So yeah, featured Dan, I think finally, uh, they can't deny it anymore.

[00:13:28] And you know what?

[00:13:29] That was one of those things that, uh, I've, I'd first heard about probably listening to Alex Jones well over a decade ago.

[00:13:38] That's how fringe saying that was true.

[00:13:41] That's what Jones is right moment.

[00:13:43] Uh, even for this show, the new background animations, some of these themes, uh, memes were, uh, you gave them to me.

[00:13:51] And I think you collected these at least eight years ago.

[00:13:55] Some of them, right?

[00:13:56] Where fluoride being harmful and in the water was absolutely fringe.

[00:14:02] So look how far we've come.

[00:14:04] Right.

[00:14:05] And it makes you, you know, really, really wonder where we're going to be in 10 years on things that people are suggesting now.

[00:14:16] Well, I'm really happy that they're figuring this out, but I'm almost worried about the answer to your question there, because whether it's GMO or different medications, COVID jab, and a lot of other nasties out there, microplastics, all those are going to be, you know, fluoride asbestos or worse level.

[00:14:43] I think so.

[00:14:44] Try to clean up.

[00:14:45] I think that's one of the best things you can do as a preppers, try to stay healthy and avoid in as much of that stuff as possible.

[00:14:53] It's going to be really, really interesting to see what, uh, RFK jr.

[00:14:57] If he's confirmed by the Senate, what he can get done, what he can get done and what, what he, what he focuses his attention to.

[00:15:07] Right.

[00:15:07] So there's what publicly, you know, a secretary of health and human services is doing, but behind the scenes, what, what can he do about fluoride?

[00:15:17] What can he do about the vaccinations, MRNA vaccinations?

[00:15:22] What can he do about studying the rates of autism?

[00:15:25] Because, you know, basically it hasn't been studied.

[00:15:27] That's why there's no proof of it.

[00:15:29] Right.

[00:15:29] What, what, how effective will he be?

[00:15:31] That remains to be seen, but real opportunity for us to turn a corner, right?

[00:15:38] Right.

[00:15:38] This is like going back to how meat packing plants in the late 1800s and 1900s, you know, were run with zero inspection and zero safety and zero accountability for the health of the consumer.

[00:15:53] Well, I'm going to be watching carefully.

[00:15:55] He has an opportunity for greatness in this arena.

[00:15:58] I'm, I'm, I'm rooting for him.

[00:16:01] Yeah.

[00:16:02] If they fail here may never get a chance like this again.

[00:16:05] I feel like there's a lot at stake all around, whether it's health finances, geopolitics, the next year, the next two years, next four years and beyond, but definitely next, you know, for this administration, it's a, you got a great opportunity.

[00:16:22] And if it's squandered or really sabotaging, they can't push through, it's going to be hard to get back to where we are here.

[00:16:29] So I got to take advantage of it now.

[00:16:31] I think if anyone will do it, RFK is going to do his damnedest.

[00:16:34] Do you think he'll be confirmed or like what kind of real quick, maybe 30 seconds explain the confirmation process just for everybody.

[00:16:44] And do you think he'll be confirmed or you think, you know, there'll be problems with him?

[00:16:49] Well, constitution, you know, says that the Senate confirms presidential appointees of a certain type cabinet secretaries.

[00:16:58] Right. So and ambassadors and generals and, you know, things like that.

[00:17:04] So he has to go through that process.

[00:17:07] You know, it's a checks and balance of our constitutional system.

[00:17:11] And I think anybody Trump ever nominates ever again, it gets the Kavanaugh treatment.

[00:17:17] That, you know, the Democrats pull anything and anything in a ball out, anything possible out to derail because then then you get an acting secretary with who by statute has many less authorities.

[00:17:36] We're going to have to watch that coming up very soon as well.

[00:17:40] I guess we got one more Patriot power hour at least planned between now and inauguration.

[00:17:46] And then there's gonna be a lot of, like I said, a lot of news coming out immediately thereafter.

[00:17:53] Confirmations policies, first 100 days.

[00:17:56] In fact, maybe that's a good segue.

[00:17:58] Unless you got any other news you wanted to hit on real quick.

[00:18:02] A couple of those predictions and questions are about what will Trump accomplish in the first 100 days.

[00:18:08] So you ready for some predictions or anything else you wanted to hit on first?

[00:18:11] I'm ready for predictions, but for new listeners, how we do this.

[00:18:16] It's not, it's not gonna be binary.

[00:18:20] It's not gonna be yes or no.

[00:18:22] It's certainly not us rooting for any of this to happen.

[00:18:25] I want every single one of these indicators of threats to our Republic that not happen in 2025 or in my lifetime.

[00:18:35] When they all count, if they all compounded together, it'd be hell on earth.

[00:18:40] So we're just talking to our prepper community and Americans that listen to this show and saying, here's, here's after, you know, several years of tracking the news on a consistent basis and discussing it weekly.

[00:18:57] Episode 290 of Patriot Power Hour.

[00:19:00] We do this.

[00:19:01] We're, we're telling you our estimates on, you know, how confident we are that that bad thing is going to happen, but it's not the same as rooting for it or hoping it'll happen.

[00:19:13] Or, you know, if I say it's 30% chance it's going to happen.

[00:19:17] Think about that.

[00:19:18] I don't think it's going to happen.

[00:19:20] You know, right?

[00:19:21] 70% chance.

[00:19:22] I don't, I'm pretty sure it's not going to happen, but I'm giving a 30% rating because that's, that's how strong I sense that risk going into the new year.

[00:19:31] And, and Ben, you're going to give your assessment.

[00:19:34] We might differ at times, might agree at times.

[00:19:37] And again, it's a measuring stick next December.

[00:19:40] We're going to see how well we did.

[00:19:41] And again, I hope, I hope I'm wrong on all my percentages.

[00:19:45] I hope none of this happens.

[00:19:48] Well said, well explained.

[00:19:51] When we don't agree, I'll make note of it here on the visual part on this document.

[00:19:56] And this is the document we'll refer to at the midway point in June.

[00:20:00] And then again, at the very end of December, 2025, again, these predictions are through the end of December of 2025.

[00:20:08] So you ready for the first one?

[00:20:10] Yeah, let's do it.

[00:20:12] All right.

[00:20:14] Percent chance that there's an attempt on Trump's life that's made public.

[00:20:18] So not like they find someone trying to poison him, cover it up.

[00:20:22] No one knows about it for 50 years.

[00:20:23] We're talking about Butler PA or some other, at least public attempt on his life.

[00:20:28] Doesn't even have to be successful, but what percent chance give that?

[00:20:35] Every president has above zero.

[00:20:38] That's for sure.

[00:20:40] And I think the security apparatus around the president, when the president's in full control of it.

[00:20:47] Right.

[00:20:47] And I'm pretty sure after Butler, Trump's going to go in and clean house in the secret service and put in place real security for himself.

[00:20:56] Not hard to do once you're the president, you just start ordering it and it'll happen.

[00:21:02] Right.

[00:21:03] So Trump definitely has a higher chance than any Democrat would to be assassinated by a lot.

[00:21:14] How high that chance is now, you know, on the assumption that he certainly is going to gain control of the secret service and the military.

[00:21:22] The military could be ordered to augment the secret service when he travels internationally.

[00:21:27] You know, that's that's that secret service is there.

[00:21:30] But a whole lot more is concerned about where the president is, like the Air Force and the army.

[00:21:36] And there's a lot to it.

[00:21:39] So 20 percent chance.

[00:21:44] OK.

[00:21:44] And that 20 percent chance would have to be when Trump does something.

[00:21:49] Loses his judgment and orders the secret service to do something impromptu.

[00:21:54] So that's something that even even on the assumption that the entire force is working as hard as it can to protect him has a gap that that it just he and Trump.

[00:22:07] I can't imagine he's not wise enough to not let that happen.

[00:22:11] But given the amount of people that would would be constantly trying to do it.

[00:22:17] And like you said, it's going to be, you know, classified and not discussed about if it was a failed attempt.

[00:22:24] Right. You know, most likely somebody gets shots off.

[00:22:28] Maybe the better question is, what are the chances anybody gets like shots off or detonate something near him?

[00:22:35] Right. Like that that percentage chance is a different question.

[00:22:38] But just that he gets assassinated, I'll put it at 20.

[00:22:42] The risk is real. OK, well, I kind of wanted to split it in that way.

[00:22:48] I put it at a little bit lower where it's like 15 or 20 percent chance that someone gets shots off or there's an explosion nearby, but he's not even injured.

[00:22:59] And then maybe you got to you got to pick a number, man.

[00:23:03] I'm going 15 percent. OK. All right.

[00:23:07] 15 percent in the attempt. You can't give a range yourself.

[00:23:12] I got to you know, I was kind of thinking through it, but I will.

[00:23:15] And that's actually what I like about this. These predictions makes us commit and put a put something on it.

[00:23:22] So I I guess that means that I think it's less likely it's going to happen.

[00:23:27] But I still think, you know, 20 percent chance, which is still a fair.

[00:23:33] Well, OK, you said 20 percent chance he is killed.

[00:23:38] Is that what you said? Or 20 percent chance there would be shots fired?

[00:23:43] Wait a minute. Your question is, what was was chance that he's assassinated?

[00:23:47] Nope. That there is an attempt.

[00:23:50] A public a public attempt.

[00:23:52] Yeah. Yeah, I'll stick with 20. OK.

[00:23:55] I'm going to that many people want.

[00:23:57] Yeah, obviously Butler and several others after that.

[00:24:03] I mean, people are going to be coming after him, whether it you know, the he cleans house or not makes all the difference on whether they're successful.

[00:24:12] The next is still a 10 percent chance that they're successful.

[00:24:16] Well, and this bakes that into it as well as natural causes or any other reason, I guess.

[00:24:23] Percent death or percent chance Trump death, any cause.

[00:24:27] So it could be assassination or just he gets the flu.

[00:24:31] I don't know. Percent chance death, any cause.

[00:24:36] Ten percent.

[00:24:39] Nice. OK.

[00:24:40] And again, it's not like we want this to happen.

[00:24:43] We're just trying to analyze it.

[00:24:45] I'm going to. I was thinking more like.

[00:24:48] Seven percent.

[00:24:50] So 10 percent, you know, that's can't really fight against that.

[00:24:54] I would put a little bit lower myself, but he is relatively old.

[00:24:59] So on certain dimensions, he's old.

[00:25:02] But on the health dimension, much more, you know, seemingly a much better health than many others his age have.

[00:25:11] You know, he might be the healthiest president at that age that we ever had.

[00:25:17] You know, Reagan was pretty vigorous in the 70s and he campaigned well.

[00:25:21] People saw him out. He got shot.

[00:25:23] Right. He got blown away in the street and came back from it.

[00:25:26] He was tough. Right.

[00:25:28] You know, but, you know, compared to Biden on the just the personal health level.

[00:25:32] Right. Biden had a much higher chance of dying in office.

[00:25:35] Doesn't seem like that's going to happen.

[00:25:36] But, you know, he looks frail to say the least.

[00:25:41] But on the security threat dimension, you know, Trump is.

[00:25:45] He's a quarter of magnitude more threat than Biden.

[00:25:48] I agree for sure.

[00:25:50] And I was thinking of Reagan myself when that would have counted as an attempt on Reagan's life.

[00:25:57] That was public for sure.

[00:25:58] So it's not like these things have not happened.

[00:26:01] And there's been a few presidents killed and a few that have been shot or shot at a lot, to be honest.

[00:26:08] Even Roosevelt. Teddy, that is right.

[00:26:10] Right. So next up.

[00:26:15] Gold greater than three thousand dollars.

[00:26:19] That would be well above the all time high.

[00:26:22] I'd be about 40 percent higher than what it is right now.

[00:26:25] But hey, gold went up.

[00:26:28] I don't have the exact numbers in front of me, but, you know, gold went up quite a lot in 2024.

[00:26:35] So, you know, it actually would be more like 25 percent from here, not even 40 percent.

[00:26:42] So anyway, gold is sneaky high again.

[00:26:45] Had a great 2024.

[00:26:46] It is two thousand six hundred and seventy dollars right now.

[00:26:53] What's the percent chance to be above three thousand at the end of the year?

[00:26:58] Well, let's let's think this through a little bit.

[00:27:02] If if Trump launches all kinds of new tariffs, what's that do to the dollar?

[00:27:09] That's a great question.

[00:27:10] We have to think through all the permutations.

[00:27:12] You want to do that?

[00:27:14] Yeah, I know you know this.

[00:27:16] So the dollar does what if tariffs get applied?

[00:27:20] If we're in trade wars.

[00:27:22] The strength of the dollar, it's dropping right.

[00:27:26] Yeah.

[00:27:27] In the aggregate.

[00:27:29] Yeah.

[00:27:29] On the DXY in a basket of currencies measured again.

[00:27:32] It happened the first Trump term on the DXY.

[00:27:36] So Trump, Trump devalues the dollar.

[00:27:40] And that what's that mean for gold?

[00:27:42] That's the hard part that that part I'm going to leave to you.

[00:27:45] That's what kind of felt that I'm gold gold up in that case.

[00:27:50] Yeah.

[00:27:51] Yeah.

[00:27:51] I'm going to go with where are we at tonight on price per ounce?

[00:27:55] It's actually at two thousand six hundred and seventy.

[00:28:01] Oh, I'm going.

[00:28:03] It's actually only 90, 10 percent up.

[00:28:06] Yeah.

[00:28:07] I'm going 90 percent chance we see gold 3000 in 2025.

[00:28:12] I was totally misreading this.

[00:28:14] It's not as high as it as it needed to go.

[00:28:17] Yeah.

[00:28:17] Only 10 percent from here.

[00:28:19] So 90 percent chance gold appreciates at least 10 percent in 2025 says future Dan.

[00:28:26] You know, this is the year I'm a little less bullish on precious metals than ever before, which probably means it's the year it's going to really break out.

[00:28:38] Gold and silver.

[00:28:39] I've been a huge buyer and supporter of for damn near 15 years at this rate, at least 12, 13.

[00:28:47] And it's languished most of the time.

[00:28:50] However, gold, like I said, kicked ass last year.

[00:28:53] Silver did OK.

[00:28:54] We'll talk about that.

[00:28:56] But gold and silver broken my heart a bit.

[00:28:59] And I'm probably jaded because of Bitcoin kicking ass so much over those years.

[00:29:03] And I wish I had more Bitcoin, but I still love gold and silver.

[00:29:05] But I'm putting this at 80.

[00:29:08] 80 percent.

[00:29:09] 80 percent chance gold greater than 3K.

[00:29:12] I think it could go up another 10 percent.

[00:29:14] But there are things out there that could bring gold down in particular if Bitcoin keeps demonetizing it.

[00:29:23] A lot of people think folks are buying Bitcoin instead of gold or even selling their gold to buy Bitcoin.

[00:29:28] That could continue.

[00:29:31] Or I don't know.

[00:29:32] There's a lot of other potential scenarios out there.

[00:29:35] But obviously, I think there's a 80 percent chance four out of five chance that gold goes up 10 percent in the next year.

[00:29:44] So that's a nice little buy.

[00:29:45] If you want to stack some gold, I think it's still at a good price.

[00:29:49] I'll tell you that.

[00:29:51] Yeah.

[00:29:52] All right.

[00:29:53] Sometimes it's OK to have high percentage chances because we still have to verify that.

[00:29:57] Right.

[00:29:57] Yeah.

[00:29:58] Got to check next December to see if, you know, what was what went wrong in our analysis if it's not.

[00:30:05] Yeah.

[00:30:06] Absolutely.

[00:30:07] There's been many times I thought gold would be above 2,500 or 3K.

[00:30:11] And this is back when it was like 1,500.

[00:30:14] So I thought it would double, you know, in over a year or two.

[00:30:18] And it certainly didn't.

[00:30:19] But if it keeps the momentum of the last year, it might, especially if the lower interest rates or the dollar devalues a lot.

[00:30:25] But here's the flip of that gold less than 2,000, meaning it gives up pretty much all its gains of the last 12 months, 16 months.

[00:30:37] So it can't be that.

[00:30:39] It can't be that high for you because you think there's a 90% chance to be over 3K.

[00:30:42] So what's the chance that it drops below 2K?

[00:30:48] If it tanks, I'd say I'm going to go with the assumption we're facing big tariffs and the value of dollar is going to really go down.

[00:31:01] So dollar denominated gold hit in 2000.

[00:31:05] That's a low chance.

[00:31:07] I'll go with 15%.

[00:31:10] But here's the, you might have to revise your greater than 3K then because you got 90% there, but 15%.

[00:31:18] 15 here has to sum to 100.

[00:31:21] I don't think so.

[00:31:23] That would be a different case.

[00:31:25] That'd be a different case that, you know, other things happen.

[00:31:30] I'm not sure that, you know, separately, I can say there's a 15% chance it's going to be below 2,000 and 90% on the high side.

[00:31:40] You could.

[00:31:41] I'm sticking with 90%.

[00:31:42] You'd be leaving some big on the table or paying both ways if it was a gambling market, but you could do that technically.

[00:31:49] Oh, I'm not betting on it.

[00:31:52] I'm going to say only 5% chance.

[00:31:57] So this is how I at least evaluate this.

[00:32:00] 80% chance gold is greater than 3K.

[00:32:04] 5% chance it drops below 2K.

[00:32:07] And then the remaining, the 15% weighted average percent.

[00:32:12] I think that it'll, you know, could be between 2K and 3K.

[00:32:16] There's a 15% chance of that.

[00:32:18] You know, I still think it's mostly going to the upside above 3K.

[00:32:22] And so does future Dan though.

[00:32:26] Okay.

[00:32:26] More economic predictions.

[00:32:29] Let's, let's stick in the economic orientation.

[00:32:33] Keep, keep, keep all my thoughts together.

[00:32:35] Cause they're all interrelated.

[00:32:37] Yeah.

[00:32:37] I was going to do silver, but silver and, you know, silver and gold are somewhat related,

[00:32:43] although silver languished compared to gold.

[00:32:46] So I picked two, $2 numbers here.

[00:32:49] First to start off silver is right now at, where is it?

[00:32:54] 30 something.

[00:32:56] Yep.

[00:32:57] $30 and nine cents.

[00:33:00] So the numbers I picked not out of thin air, but silver $50, which would be all time

[00:33:07] high.

[00:33:07] Silver did not hit all time highs in the last year, whereas gold hit its all time high and

[00:33:12] surpassed it by a good percent.

[00:33:14] But silver $50 breaking its all time high.

[00:33:18] What are you thinking?

[00:33:20] I'm thinking that silver is more plentiful.

[00:33:24] You know, operating silver mines is a well understood industry.

[00:33:30] It, silver has major industrial, you know, needs or, are satisfied industrial needs.

[00:33:37] So when people need more silver, they, they can mine it.

[00:33:41] That, you know, so because the supply is, I think stronger, uh, the chances of it hitting

[00:33:50] 50 or that's not very high that that's a 25%.

[00:33:54] Okay.

[00:33:58] Let's see here.

[00:33:59] I'm going to, I'm going to say that silver would be hurt more by a recession or worldwide

[00:34:06] slowdown because a good portion of the demand, not all of it by any means, but a good portion

[00:34:11] is industrial and high tech.

[00:34:13] So if there's major tariffs, there's a trade war, there's real war, or there's just a recession,

[00:34:20] global recession, even a demand for that should go down.

[00:34:24] Some supply squeeze and how much supply there is, is always a interesting topic.

[00:34:30] Those guys that sell silver online always saying they're running out of silver.

[00:34:34] There always seems to be some more, but I think I'm going to give silver greater than 50 bucks.

[00:34:42] Pretty much what you gave.

[00:34:43] I'm going to go a little lower 20% for silver greater than 50 bucks.

[00:34:49] Uh, that would be, you know, that would be quite an increase in me from 30 up to 50,

[00:34:54] not double, but, uh, quite a lot.

[00:34:56] So 20% from me.

[00:34:59] Yeah.

[00:35:00] I'm leaving in a scenario where the monetary system has a real, real crisis.

[00:35:06] So, you know, if, if, if fiat got doubted by a certain larger fraction of society internationally,

[00:35:16] you know, you can, you could see a run on silver too.

[00:35:20] It's always the potential is always there.

[00:35:24] And what I like to keep in mind is how mad max do you want to get about it?

[00:35:31] If it's global thermonuclear war, it gives crap what your silver's worth.

[00:35:34] But if the banking system does collapse or there is large power outages or issues for a few weeks,

[00:35:42] let's not say for, for three years, but just a couple of weeks, regional, a few weeks having that silver,

[00:35:49] it's going to be valuable, maybe invaluable to have that instead of, uh, digits on a screen in your 401k or bank account,

[00:35:59] or even cash under the mattress.

[00:36:01] Look at the wildfires.

[00:36:02] Hopefully those folks didn't just have cash under the mattress.

[00:36:06] So silver, and this goes for gold, silver, Bitcoin, land preps in general, you know,

[00:36:13] you can value it in us dollar, but if you actually really need it,

[00:36:17] because stuff is hitting the fan or for rebuilding after stuff hits the fan, you know, uh,

[00:36:23] it doesn't really matter how much you bought it for, you know, you've got some at least.

[00:36:30] What else you got, Ben?

[00:36:32] Silver less than 20 bucks.

[00:36:35] Uh, that's a much higher percentage chance.

[00:36:39] Um, back to these drop below 20 again, and I'll go with a 45.

[00:36:45] Okay.

[00:36:46] Going with 35%.

[00:36:49] I think it'll languish between, uh, 25 and 35 probably.

[00:36:54] So we'll see.

[00:36:56] All right.

[00:36:58] Bitcoin.

[00:36:59] Here we go.

[00:37:00] Bitcoin had incredible 2024.

[00:37:03] One of its best years ever, not on percentage terms though.

[00:37:09] It's had even crazier years percentage, but that was going from like $1 to $20, you know,

[00:37:13] 20 X, you know, now a double or triple is a little different.

[00:37:20] So there is scale to this, but Bitcoin right now actually dipping a bit.

[00:37:25] It's been pretty damn volatile since Christmas up above 102 K, but as low as 91 K.

[00:37:34] No one ever said it'll be an easy ride on Bitcoin.

[00:37:38] I think it's good buying opportunity, but point is Bitcoin's all time high, 108,000 about a month

[00:37:45] and a half ago.

[00:37:47] It hit 102,000 as recently as a few days ago, but right now it's at 92,000.

[00:37:54] So the prediction category or the range Bitcoin over 150,000, which means, you know, 40, 50% higher

[00:38:05] than the all time high and not doubling from where it is right now, but you know, 80%, 75%.

[00:38:13] So Bitcoin 150 K.

[00:38:15] What do you think?

[00:38:17] Oh, that's a high percentage chance.

[00:38:21] All Trump has to do is talk up a strategic Bitcoin reserve and not even do it, but just really almost get close to do it, you know?

[00:38:31] And that would definitely bring us to 150.

[00:38:35] And I think he's going to do it.

[00:38:36] So let's go with a 90% chance.

[00:38:41] Ah, wait a minute.

[00:38:43] Maybe 85.

[00:38:46] Woo.

[00:38:46] That's the best bet I've ever heard, but I like it.

[00:38:50] 85%.

[00:38:52] I am, and I'm not trying to reverse speak this into existence that much.

[00:38:58] I'm going to go a little less than that.

[00:39:00] I'm going to say like 60% because I do believe there's a lot of scenarios out there where there's

[00:39:08] a market crash or big time recession, right?

[00:39:11] And the stock market's down 20, 30, 40%.

[00:39:16] And Bitcoin also drops 40 or 50% short term or, you know, for a month or two.

[00:39:23] Then it bounces back.

[00:39:24] It hits 150 K.

[00:39:26] You know, three, four, five, six months after that when there's massive bailouts and printing of money.

[00:39:32] But anyway, I think there's a decent chance that Bitcoin could hit 70, 60, 50 K sometime in 2025.

[00:39:42] But then go up to 150 K and maybe by this year, maybe it would take until 2026 or something.

[00:39:48] So anyway, 60% is what I'm going with.

[00:39:54] Okay.

[00:39:55] Okay.

[00:39:56] Last, at least, last like price prediction type thing.

[00:40:00] There might be a couple economic things, but we're going to get into other topics as well.

[00:40:04] But Bitcoin less than 60 K.

[00:40:06] So dropping by 30 plus percent from where it is right now.

[00:40:11] Oh, I think that's probably a 75% chance.

[00:40:15] This is a very volatile, very, very volatile.

[00:40:18] So, well, I can do both.

[00:40:20] I hit both 60 and 150 this year.

[00:40:23] Okay.

[00:40:24] That's a great distinction is whether it ends at that number or if it touches that number at any point during the year.

[00:40:31] That's actually, I guess we didn't really specify.

[00:40:34] I'm looking at like, what is the price at the very end?

[00:40:38] But it got you coming from the record.

[00:40:41] My, my predictions on gold and silver was, it was, it touches that.

[00:40:45] I wasn't sure, wasn't quite sure what you meant.

[00:40:49] Dang.

[00:40:50] That's what I meant.

[00:40:51] That's all right.

[00:40:51] We're teleprompter free here.

[00:40:54] That's why I was like, hmm, all potential outcomes have to add to 100%.

[00:40:58] But now if we're talking about just touching it, I'm thinking more at the very end of the year.

[00:41:03] But, hey, I'll go, we'll keep that in mind.

[00:41:05] I'll make a note of that.

[00:41:06] Both ways are interesting, actually.

[00:41:10] So both ways to look at these things, especially these prices.

[00:41:12] So we'll keep that in mind.

[00:41:15] You said, what again?

[00:41:17] 90%?

[00:41:20] Yeah, I think it's hitting 150 at 90% and it's a 75% on your low end.

[00:41:25] Okay.

[00:41:27] So that means have that dry powder ready to go.

[00:41:32] Get some orders set up in your exchange.

[00:41:34] So when it hits 60, 70K, you'll be able to buy it quick automatically.

[00:41:43] All right.

[00:41:44] I'm going to say, and again, mine is where does it end?

[00:41:47] Although maybe, I think retroactively I might go in there and give my thoughts on the volatility.

[00:41:52] But I'm going to say if it ends less than 60K, like 15%, 15%.

[00:41:59] Possible though.

[00:42:01] All right.

[00:42:02] All right.

[00:42:05] Here we go.

[00:42:07] Let's, here's a couple economic ones.

[00:42:11] A failure of a top 10 U.S. bank.

[00:42:18] Top what?

[00:42:23] 10.

[00:42:24] How high?

[00:42:25] Top 10.

[00:42:25] I'll even pull up the top 10 banks by reserves.

[00:42:29] Let's call it deposit banks, not investment banks.

[00:42:33] Yeah.

[00:42:33] I was going to ask for that.

[00:42:34] I'd like to hear some names to make this call.

[00:42:36] Okay.

[00:42:37] Top 10 U.S. commercial, not investing.

[00:42:42] Top 10 U.S. commercial banks by reserves, I believe would be the best way to do that.

[00:42:50] Federalreserve.gov.

[00:42:51] There we go.

[00:42:52] You ready for this?

[00:42:53] I'll name all 10 super quick.

[00:42:55] All right.

[00:42:56] Will one of these fail?

[00:42:58] Wow.

[00:42:58] They're pretty big ones.

[00:42:59] So this would be huge if one of these failed.

[00:43:01] Holy cow.

[00:43:02] JP Morgan.

[00:43:04] I'll read their deposits.

[00:43:06] Why not?

[00:43:06] 2.6 trillion.

[00:43:08] Bank of America, 2.4 trillion.

[00:43:11] Citibank, 1 trillion.

[00:43:14] So Bank of America and JP Morgan are so much bigger than anybody else.

[00:43:19] Wells Fargo, 1.6 trillion.

[00:43:22] So they're actually the third biggest.

[00:43:24] U.S. Bank, 661 billion.

[00:43:28] Goldman Sachs, the commercial side of them, 490 billion.

[00:43:34] These are domestic assets only, by the way.

[00:43:36] PNC Bank, 555 billion.

[00:43:41] Truist Bank, 515 billion.

[00:43:45] Capital One, 483 billion.

[00:43:49] And TD Bank, 399 billion.

[00:43:54] I think chances of one of them coming apart at the seams this year is low because I don't think any one of them can come apart at the seams without them all having significant systemic risk.

[00:44:14] Since 2008.

[00:44:16] Since 2008.

[00:44:16] Some point in time before 2008, the banking power consolidated to the point where it's one very fragile system.

[00:44:28] So on the assumption that there won't be a collapse under Trump, it'll be a controlled demolition by nefarious actors internationally and domestically.

[00:44:40] I think that the chances of doing that this year on Trump are very low because during a banking crisis and an emergency like that, Congress would have to act.

[00:44:55] And if Congress acted, that would give Trump a lot of power that his political opponents can't afford to ever let him have.

[00:45:06] Because with that kind of power, emergency power in the economic and financial arena, he could get a lot of Trump policies entrenched.

[00:45:17] They don't want that.

[00:45:19] So these 10 banks, they're going to do everything they can to paper over any problems they got until, just like at the end of George W. Bush's term, it can all come apart at the seams and blame it on your political enemy.

[00:45:36] The risk of this happening in late, mid to late 2027, early 2028 is going to be much higher than the number I'm going to give you right now for 2025.

[00:45:51] I think the chances in 2025 are about 10% chance.

[00:45:55] And that's accounting for a scenario where no one can rig it.

[00:46:00] Something happens that spirals the banking system out of control, and it's truly reacting to market forces in a very, very negative way.

[00:46:10] But I think this regime of banking, the banksters, as you like to say them, have this thing wired up well enough to prevent it from happening until it's valuable for it to happen for them.

[00:46:25] Well said.

[00:46:26] I don't think I can say it better, and I have the same number.

[00:46:31] 10%.

[00:46:35] It's almost like those 10 banks I named are the only ones that are going to survive.

[00:46:41] It's the other 400 below them that'll be consolidated up to the top 10 or top 20 if stuff hits the fan.

[00:46:47] And there'll be tons of bailouts and all that as well.

[00:46:50] So that 10%, I agree, is also black swan.

[00:46:54] They actually lose control.

[00:46:56] There actually is just such a contagion in the credit market that they can't control.

[00:47:04] And that's always possible.

[00:47:07] But the machinery is a lot more haunted with ghosts nowadays than ever with all the debt and all the machination going on.

[00:47:15] So 10%, I think, is very fair.

[00:47:19] Yeah, and if it does happen this year, that's dangerous because they've lost control.

[00:47:25] Yes.

[00:47:26] Yes.

[00:47:27] Very much related.

[00:47:29] One trillion with a T, as in Tony.

[00:47:34] One trillion or more in bailouts.

[00:47:39] Now, I didn't specify banks or corporations.

[00:47:41] It could be, you know, like the big auto got bailed out and stuff like that.

[00:47:45] But one trillion or more in bailouts by the U.S. government in 2025.

[00:47:52] Of the banking sector?

[00:47:54] Of any sector.

[00:47:56] And this could be stimulus checks.

[00:47:59] This could be any sort of pretty much the government charging a trillion dollars to a credit card and distributing it, whether to the banks or to the people or a combination thereof.

[00:48:15] Boy, I don't know how that happens without a banking crisis.

[00:48:18] So it's hard to not.

[00:48:20] But who else could get a bailout of that size?

[00:48:25] So COVID, they definitely did this.

[00:48:27] And in fact, they did it in March 2023 with the Silicon Valley Bank.

[00:48:33] It was all that combined.

[00:48:35] It was just about a trillion worth of bailouts and extensions and consolidations.

[00:48:42] Now, a lot of that was lines of credit.

[00:48:43] So maybe that one would not qualify.

[00:48:46] But COVID certainly would in a lot of ways.

[00:48:49] So you can also just think of it as COVID bailouts and, you know, the Paycheck Protection Program.

[00:48:57] That was so many billions of dollars.

[00:49:00] A lot of fraud there, too, by the way.

[00:49:02] But one trillion in bailouts by the U.S. government.

[00:49:06] We'll have to define it later, maybe a little better.

[00:49:11] I'm going to go with low again.

[00:49:13] I think that grants too much power to the president.

[00:49:18] And they want to keep him as powerless as possible during his term.

[00:49:23] So on the assumption that this stuff is coordinated and controlled to a large degree, I think I'll go with maybe a little higher than 10%, 15%.

[00:49:36] Okay.

[00:49:37] 15%.

[00:49:39] I'm going 20%.

[00:49:43] It's a little bit higher.

[00:49:46] Because I presume you agree with me that if there's a failure of a top 10 U.S. bank, then there's going to obviously be one trillion in bailouts.

[00:49:55] So that takes care of a good portion of it right there.

[00:49:58] But I can see other situations where bailouts, stimulus package, other stuff like that.

[00:50:03] Maybe even a massive natural disaster where they just need to – I mean, I'm not even really counting how much the government will send out to California.

[00:50:12] But I guess you could, but I'm not even counting that.

[00:50:16] I don't think most people consider federal funding of disaster relief a bailout.

[00:50:22] That's fair.

[00:50:23] So we'll keep that in mind when we calculate the tab later on.

[00:50:28] A bailout to me is saving a business that would otherwise go out of business because of the economy.

[00:50:34] It's basically the government's funding failure.

[00:50:36] Yep.

[00:50:39] Or, you know, the COVID bailouts and stuff like that.

[00:50:43] So, all right.

[00:50:45] I'm a little bit higher.

[00:50:46] I think, you know, it's self-evident that there's a banking crisis where a top 10 bank is going to fail or does fail.

[00:50:53] Easily be more than $1 trillion.

[00:50:54] It might be $5 trillion, to be honest.

[00:50:56] But I think there's still other scenarios out there where maybe a top 10 bank's not collapsing,

[00:51:02] but a bunch of top, you know, 50, top 100 type banks are failing.

[00:51:07] And the aggregate $1 trillion is needed, for example.

[00:51:13] I got you.

[00:51:14] Let's do these two kind of in tandem.

[00:51:16] I did do them separately.

[00:51:20] Well, but they're very much related.

[00:51:24] Anywhere in the world, there's a weapon of mass destruction terror attack.

[00:51:31] So, I guess terror attack would be on civilians.

[00:51:35] Is that how we would define that?

[00:51:39] Yeah, well.

[00:51:41] Go ahead.

[00:51:41] The general conception of a terrorist attack as, you know, when that word became widely used was the plane hijackings,

[00:51:51] the PLO plane hijackings of the 70s, 60s, 70s, right?

[00:51:54] Trying to change public opinion, trying to change the decision-making of civilian leadership of Western democracies through terrorizing civilians.

[00:52:06] I mean that – and then later it got extended so that everybody who's your opponent is a terrorist and deluded to sort of a meaningless term, right?

[00:52:15] But, you know, that's what most people originally thought terrorism is.

[00:52:20] A weapon of mass destruction is another term that can be stretched so that something, you know, much smaller than was originally conceived of WMD is now getting called that.

[00:52:34] Like a truck bomb that killed 500 or 1,000 people somehow.

[00:52:39] Now, is that a weapon of mass destruction?

[00:52:43] Well, to the local police dealing with it, it is in the context of – relative to the ultimate WMD, a hydrogen bomb, it's not.

[00:52:53] So, you know, I'm going to go with an event where tens of thousands are killed to be a weapon of mass destruction.

[00:53:02] So, you know, if you set that boundary, then the chances of it happening worldwide this year, boy, that's probably higher than ever.

[00:53:12] And it's probably on the order of 20 percent, and it's still low.

[00:53:20] And the reason why is, you know, employing nuclear weapons, that's an act of war that, you know, you can't do it against an opponent that has the ability to strike back with nukes.

[00:53:33] You can, but it's, you know, mutually assured destruction, so it hasn't happened.

[00:53:37] So it's a pretty strong axiom that I'm a believer in.

[00:53:41] A nuclear-armed country striking an unarmed nuclear-armed nation, I think it's pretty low.

[00:53:51] And some private actor or nefarious underground black operation to just get one, still very difficult, very, very difficult.

[00:54:02] A lot of policing power dedicated to preventing it, too, everywhere.

[00:54:06] So where could it happen, though, most likely?

[00:54:14] Somehow Iran decides they've had enough and used it and would result in the destruction of Iran.

[00:54:22] But you've got to be concerned about that regime in Tehran getting pushed to a radicalized point where they decide to do it.

[00:54:32] Other potential scenarios.

[00:54:34] So first off, you put 20 percent, right?

[00:54:37] I do.

[00:54:38] Okay.

[00:54:39] I'm going to go a little lower, 15 percent.

[00:54:42] I think other scenarios besides, of course, nuclear war, hopefully, don't see that at all.

[00:54:47] But sports games, biological and chemical attacks on sports games would be something that's, I feel like it'd be pretty tough for them to prevent.

[00:54:59] Hopefully they could and can.

[00:55:03] So thousands dead at large, large gatherings with aerosol-sprayed chemicals or biological warfare or dirty bomb in Central Park or on the Strip in Las Vegas during tourist season or whatever.

[00:55:18] So anywhere in the world, weapon of mass destruction, terror attack, which I'm going to, I guess my qualifications are what I consider weapon of mass destruction.

[00:55:26] I guess truck bomb certainly could be, you know, Oklahoma City, WMD.

[00:55:31] But I'm thinking more nuclear, biological, chemical, the NBC guy style, you know.

[00:55:38] So dirty bombs, biological, chemical, hopefully not an actual suitcase nuke or real nuke.

[00:55:45] So 15 percent for me.

[00:55:46] So that's in the world.

[00:55:48] What about in the U.S.?

[00:55:49] Just same thing, but on U.S. soil.

[00:55:54] That's around 2 percent chance.

[00:55:59] Okay.

[00:56:02] And I noticed with all the memes that I went through that you collected over the years, the very strong tendency to have memes that criticize the surveillance state.

[00:56:13] And for good reason.

[00:56:15] However, that surveillance state is there for that purpose.

[00:56:19] Like, you know, there's any communication you got is scooped up.

[00:56:22] And if it's deemed international in nature, it's able to be, you know, reviewed for this sort of thing.

[00:56:29] So ask yourself after September 11th.

[00:56:33] I mean, I am a believer that there was an Al-Qaeda and they wanted to do that.

[00:56:38] And they were probably puppets.

[00:56:40] Nevertheless, they wanted to do it.

[00:56:43] But after September 11th, how come they never succeeded again?

[00:56:47] Because the surveillance state was very, very much on the watch out for that.

[00:56:52] So I'm putting that at 2 percent.

[00:56:55] Okay.

[00:56:56] I'm putting it.

[00:56:58] I'm going to go a little higher than you.

[00:57:03] 4 percent.

[00:57:05] So not super high, but all considered, that's really high.

[00:57:10] 4 percent.

[00:57:11] That's once every, like, what, 25 years?

[00:57:15] If you think of it that way.

[00:57:18] You know?

[00:57:19] Yeah.

[00:57:20] That might not necessarily be sound.

[00:57:23] But in any point in time, you have a security apparatus to prevent that.

[00:57:33] And as long as that doesn't let down, it doesn't matter how many years.

[00:57:37] It didn't let it down.

[00:57:39] So, you know, it's going to, you know, be as strong as it could be.

[00:57:43] But it can never be perfect.

[00:57:46] Someone could eventually figure out a way.

[00:57:48] A lone wolf could figure out a way to hobble together enough.

[00:57:51] And again, in my book, you've got to probably have 10,000 or more casualties to be mass in my book.

[00:58:01] All right.

[00:58:03] We're nearing one hour, but I think we're kicking ass.

[00:58:06] We only got about five more of these to go through.

[00:58:09] Maybe a little bit more, but not much.

[00:58:13] How about, let's finish off the economic real quick.

[00:58:17] We did a lot of economic on this.

[00:58:19] I am the breaker banksters, so I'm a little biased.

[00:58:22] But I think economics will be huge in the next few years.

[00:58:26] So, these, all right.

[00:58:31] First off, we talked about tariffs already.

[00:58:33] On Polymarket, those listening probably know about Polymarket.

[00:58:36] We talked about it a little bit.

[00:58:38] It's been in the news a lot with the election, et cetera.

[00:58:43] The next few questions are also on Polymarket.

[00:58:46] So, I kind of stole them from there.

[00:58:47] Beforehand, it was all free-thinking, freestyle, but these ones go well with Patriot Power Hour.

[00:58:53] And there's a betting market on it, so we already have what the betting market says.

[00:58:57] So, here we go.

[00:58:58] Trump imposes a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada.

[00:59:05] So, we're not even talking about China here.

[00:59:07] 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada.

[00:59:11] What do you think?

[00:59:14] There's probably a 100% chance that he threatens it.

[00:59:17] And I think the chances that he has to do it before he gets concessions mean that the chance of it actually happening are pretty low.

[00:59:30] But some of these countries might just stand up and see if they can rally world opinion against Trump and let the inflation that is inevitable, right?

[00:59:45] You're not going to be able to import things that you otherwise could at low prices if that happens.

[00:59:50] And that means inflation.

[00:59:52] So, 25% chance or 25% tariff on both of those countries actually going into effect.

[01:00:01] That's the question?

[01:00:03] Yep.

[01:00:06] You know, Trump might play chicken too.

[01:00:09] I'll go with 30% chance.

[01:00:11] Okay.

[01:00:11] Low, but definitely in the realm of, you know, very conceivable.

[01:00:18] So, the poly market has it at 25% chance.

[01:00:22] I'm going to have it at 20%.

[01:00:24] So, I'll go a little lower.

[01:00:25] I think pretty unlikely for Mexico and Canada.

[01:00:29] Maybe one.

[01:00:30] Maybe just Mexico.

[01:00:32] But China is a whole different story, I think.

[01:00:34] I think it's very likely or a lot higher at least.

[01:00:37] So, but whether it's 20%, 25%, or 30%, that's something we'll easily be able to check at the end.

[01:00:45] And maybe we'll know by June even.

[01:00:48] So, 30% for you, 20% for me, and the market's right in the middle there.

[01:00:54] Yep.

[01:00:55] All right.

[01:00:57] Trump deports $750,000 or more by the end of the year.

[01:01:06] And does that include self-deportations or we talking about actual in custody of our federal government and escorted out of the country?

[01:01:20] You know, which is it?

[01:01:22] I probably should go read the fine print on polymarking.

[01:01:25] I interpret this, but if you're actually betting on this, you should do more than just have your own personal interpretation.

[01:01:33] I'm not going to actually pull it up right now, although I could.

[01:01:36] But I'm going to say it actually, deportations that go through the system.

[01:01:42] So, not people just leaving the country, self-deportation.

[01:01:46] I'm considering this actually being in custody and bust or flown or I don't know how else they get them out of there.

[01:01:55] But there you go.

[01:01:59] So, if Trump declares an emergency, the powers afforded him in this regard are going to be very difficult to challenge in courts.

[01:02:15] And even if some basic constitutional law questions arise, you know, first time in our history, you know, some aspect of presidential powers, you know, gets questioned and it goes to the Supreme Court.

[01:02:29] We all know Supreme Court's probably going to rule in favor of Trump's policies, right?

[01:02:35] So, unless Trump and his team trips it up and does something in a way that, you know, some of those conservative Supreme Court justices just can't abide it.

[01:02:46] It's just, you know, just totally out of line with federal law.

[01:02:49] And he just – he can't do that.

[01:02:51] As long as he stays within the lines that the law allows, I'm giving that a 90 percent chance.

[01:02:59] That's not a lot of people.

[01:03:01] I mean – and there would also be enough to provoke four, five, six, maybe ten times the number in self-deportations.

[01:03:11] It just – it won't be worth it to be here.

[01:03:14] Another aspect is you don't have to deport people if you just start going after the employers, right?

[01:03:20] Just send out the federal bureaucracy to really, really enforce, you know, verification of U.S. citizenship to work.

[01:03:29] That right there is going to – more people are going to leave based upon the fact that they can't get a job than because they ever got in anybody's custody.

[01:03:39] Absolutely.

[01:03:39] I think that's those 89,000 extra IRS, 87,000 maybe.

[01:03:46] All those agents would be great for that.

[01:03:48] Get away from me.

[01:03:50] Go check them out.

[01:03:51] Get those employers.

[01:03:53] Make sure they're following the regulations and paying proper payroll taxes on them, et cetera.

[01:03:59] All right.

[01:04:00] Good stuff.

[01:04:01] Ah, so you said 90 percent for 750K.

[01:04:04] I'm going a little lower.

[01:04:06] I'm going to go 40 percent because I think it'll be just – now, over his entire administration, I think it's definitely over 750K.

[01:04:17] But in one year, especially that first year, very possible.

[01:04:22] I'm saying 40 percent.

[01:04:23] Poly market says 33 percent.

[01:04:25] So, hey, maybe you can go make some bets there, make some big money.

[01:04:30] I'm not going to actually do that.

[01:04:32] I'm not a betting man myself in that regard.

[01:04:36] Does Polygard demand I give him my identity to do that?

[01:04:39] I don't know.

[01:04:40] You probably could deposit using Bitcoin.

[01:04:43] So, that's somewhat anonymous or pseudo-anonymous.

[01:04:48] I don't know if you require – I don't think they would require a driver's license or ID.

[01:04:52] You probably need an email.

[01:04:53] You know, hard to know for sure.

[01:04:57] But I don't know.

[01:04:59] We're looking if you want.

[01:05:00] I'm pretty sure there's – I'm pretty sure there's tax implications.

[01:05:03] So, I'm pretty sure that the answer is yes.

[01:05:05] So, I'm pretty sure I'm going to forego giving just one more company that will sell or lose my identity the opportunity to bet on it.

[01:05:18] But if I could do it anonymously, I'd take that bet right now.

[01:05:24] A few more.

[01:05:25] Let's power through it.

[01:05:27] Trump ends Ukraine war in the first 90 days.

[01:05:33] A truce?

[01:05:34] A ceasefire?

[01:05:36] Yeah.

[01:05:37] Is that an end of the war?

[01:05:39] Has the Korean War ended?

[01:05:41] Right?

[01:05:42] So, that was in the details.

[01:05:45] But a truce and a ceasefire?

[01:05:47] A ceasefire that's relatively stable.

[01:05:49] Like kind of at the end of the Korean War, there were still incidences.

[01:05:54] But, you know, and casualties and people killed.

[01:05:57] But, you know, minor skirmishing in places.

[01:06:00] But generally, they're clamped down on by all the powers.

[01:06:08] I think it might take a peacekeeper force.

[01:06:12] Going to have to put some foreign troops in between.

[01:06:15] And going to have to be forces that Russia, you know, will accept, not NATO forces.

[01:06:22] Can that happen in 90 days?

[01:06:26] Low chance.

[01:06:28] Low, low chance.

[01:06:30] Those two sides are bitter.

[01:06:32] Those two sides lost a lot of people.

[01:06:35] And neither side is that, you know, like at the point where, you know, the Axis powers were at the end of World War II where they just have to capitulate.

[01:06:43] Right?

[01:06:44] There's no, you know, total victory on either side.

[01:06:46] So, more like the Korean War.

[01:06:49] Maybe similar to like Pakistan and India.

[01:06:51] Yeah.

[01:06:56] You know, Trump did something that, you know, that Putin said, okay, I'll accept that.

[01:07:04] And, you know, Putin could take the opportunity to do it.

[01:07:07] And so, there's always that chance.

[01:07:10] I still think in 90 days to get that to calm down to a truce and a siege fire is less than 50%.

[01:07:18] I'd go with 40%.

[01:07:19] But if you ask me by the end of next December, the chance, that estimate will go a lot higher.

[01:07:28] I think in 12 months, that could settle down in 90 days less than 50-50 that that can happen.

[01:07:38] I'll go with 40%.

[01:07:39] There you go.

[01:07:41] I will show it on screen for those watching the video.

[01:07:45] The polymarket did define a ceasefire, an armistice, etc. as ending the Ukraine War.

[01:07:53] So, that's the premise.

[01:07:57] Polymarket has it at 30%.

[01:08:00] You have it at 40%.

[01:08:01] I think 30% is probably just about right.

[01:08:04] I hate to match the polymarket, but I'm going to 30%.

[01:08:09] For all the reasons you said.

[01:08:11] Now, Trump can cut a bunch of funding and maybe calm it down a lot.

[01:08:15] Or at least stop it from escalating.

[01:08:18] But actually getting the ceasefire by April.

[01:08:21] They have the date here.

[01:08:22] I mean, I was like, holy cow, that is very short when you look at it that way.

[01:08:26] 90 days sounds like a lot.

[01:08:27] But April 19th, like even if he started right now, April 19th sounds hard.

[01:08:33] But he still would have another week or two.

[01:08:34] Maybe he's working on the background at it.

[01:08:36] Hopefully.

[01:08:36] Hopefully he is.

[01:08:37] So, yeah.

[01:08:38] Polymarket, 31%, 30%.

[01:08:42] That's why I'm going to match that.

[01:08:43] You're going to be a little higher at 40%.

[01:08:47] Yeah.

[01:08:47] There's also the Europeans.

[01:08:50] They can keep funding and supporting Ukraine and rejecting the entire thing

[01:08:55] regardless of what the United States and Russia want to have happen.

[01:08:59] Sure.

[01:09:01] Yeah.

[01:09:02] All right.

[01:09:04] This is actually a little bit economic.

[01:09:06] So, I got out of order.

[01:09:08] But it is what it is.

[01:09:11] I don't even know if we need to make a prediction per se.

[01:09:13] But we could.

[01:09:14] I'll start with Polymarket has this at 85% chance that the U.S.

[01:09:20] national debt surpasses $38 trillion.

[01:09:22] Right now it's at like $36.2 or something.

[01:09:25] So, they say 85% chance U.S.

[01:09:30] national debt will be higher than $38 trillion by the time we're doing our

[01:09:34] final show in 24, or excuse me, in 2025.

[01:09:37] Yeah.

[01:09:41] So, this year if there's a return to 2017 Trump tax cuts, if that happens, we're definitely

[01:09:54] going to 38%.

[01:09:55] I'll take the over.

[01:09:57] And I don't know what the chances of that are.

[01:10:00] But even the regulatory state and the pressure it puts on business and forcing business, the

[01:10:10] IRS going after delinquent tax accounts, that's all going to be weakened under Trump.

[01:10:19] Mostly because it just won't be funded and the right people to be put in place is to ease off in the economy.

[01:10:26] Let the growth happen.

[01:10:28] Bring us back on the Laffer curve.

[01:10:31] Meanwhile, we're not paying the debt.

[01:10:33] So, I'm going over 85%.

[01:10:36] I'm going to go 90% chance we hit $38 trillion.

[01:10:39] But the rate we're going, that seems very reasonable.

[01:10:43] I know, right?

[01:10:44] I'm going to go 90% as well.

[01:10:47] I'll match you there.

[01:10:48] Higher than Pauline Martin.

[01:10:50] And the tariffs that Trump proposes that will be collected to offset that, I'm not sure that approach is sound.

[01:10:59] Right?

[01:11:00] I'm a free trader at heart.

[01:11:02] I believe that free trade strengthens nations that can be traded with.

[01:11:09] Communist regimes, they cannot be fairly traded with.

[01:11:13] Right?

[01:11:14] We never should have made that mistake with China or many other autocracies.

[01:11:20] Even the Asian democracies, Korea, Japan, just centralize and collude within their markets so much that they gain advantages.

[01:11:32] Right?

[01:11:32] Sure.

[01:11:33] I believe in free trade.

[01:11:35] The mercantilist approach, this idea that the United States is never richer than when it had high tariffs.

[01:11:43] I think tariffs are a tool to get concessions from allies and should be used in that way.

[01:11:50] But in the long run, it's going to blow up the deficit.

[01:11:54] It's going to blow up the debt.

[01:11:57] I think I can't say it much better than that.

[01:12:00] It's going to absolutely result in what they call dead weight loss, meaning just waste and lack of wealth on both sides.

[01:12:11] But it is a tool and it's, I mean, it's a trade war.

[01:12:15] It's really what it is.

[01:12:17] So, not something you want to engage in long term, but if you do it the right way.

[01:12:22] And by the way, a lot of these other countries already have tariffs on us or other unfair practices.

[01:12:27] And we've just been taking it on the chin.

[01:12:29] So, not saying always punch the bully back, but sometimes you got to have your own self-respect.

[01:12:37] You know what I mean?

[01:12:38] So, I don't know.

[01:12:40] I don't, I'm a free trade guy too, so.

[01:12:42] But it's not that simple.

[01:12:45] China invades Taiwan.

[01:12:50] Yeah, boy.

[01:12:52] I think the chances as soon as Trump steps into office are way, way lower than they have been for the last four years.

[01:13:03] Because one thing that China can count on is Trump will order the U.S. Navy and Air Force to defend Taiwan.

[01:13:11] Right.

[01:13:12] And I'm not sure if that conventional defense wouldn't be accompanied with the marshes, which are government-to-government secret communications that warn the other party that if this happens, then we're going to do this.

[01:13:29] And that's how, you know, in the early phases of something that's leading to nuclear war, that's going to happen.

[01:13:37] Warnings are going to be made.

[01:13:38] If you do that, you know, expect to have X, Y, and Z nuked.

[01:13:42] And, you know, including like every Chinese submarine that we know and we find.

[01:13:48] We're just going to use those kind of weapons.

[01:13:50] You won't have a submarine fleet.

[01:13:52] Like, that's what's going to happen, China, if you don't stop invading right now.

[01:13:56] Right.

[01:13:57] So being able to pull the levers of that power and getting the right generals and admirals in place that are ready and thinking about, hey, this is how we're going to have to do this to, you know, stop an invasion of Taiwan.

[01:14:10] You know, I think that that's in place with Trump in office.

[01:14:15] And China must know that.

[01:14:18] Right.

[01:14:18] So chances of an invasion, it wouldn't happen unless something so terrible happened in the United States.

[01:14:27] People are in such, such disarray, so distracted and unable to respond.

[01:14:32] In that case, you know, the dragon's going to leap right into that island if they think they can get away with it.

[01:14:38] But barring that, barring some other great calamity in the United States happening at the same time, chances of an invasion for Taiwan is probably like, I'll go with 7%.

[01:14:53] Okay.

[01:14:55] Yeah.

[01:14:56] Got me convinced.

[01:14:59] The way I look at it, if China wanted to hit, they would have by now.

[01:15:03] So they may as well just wait a few more years until after Trump's presidency to go for it at this point, build up.

[01:15:11] Because they are on a trajectory where they have, as time goes on, they have a better and better chance of, at least from what I've seen.

[01:15:19] I'm not in the Pentagon briefs.

[01:15:22] But everything I've seen is, as time goes on, China actually has a better chance of being successful.

[01:15:27] So if they wait 5, 10, 15 more years, it actually, they may have a better chance.

[01:15:33] So maybe, maybe they're going to see this as a window is closed.

[01:15:38] Let's just, well, first off, they got a lot of their own internal problems they got to deal with.

[01:15:42] That might make them more likely to lash out.

[01:15:46] But I think you put 7%, I'm going to go, I'm going to just make it a nice round 10%.

[01:15:53] But I think in previous years, I've put it at like 20%.

[01:15:58] So half the chances the last year or two for the reasons you outlined, mostly.

[01:16:06] Hey, did you catch some of what is supposedly in the manifesto of the former Green Beret that set off the Cybertruck in front of Trump's Vegas resort?

[01:16:18] Did you hear some of what he claims is happening?

[01:16:22] A little bit with regard to anti-grav devices in China, having them over the top, just like they have their balloons as a flex and to collect intel, that type of stuff.

[01:16:36] And also the ability to carry like a massive payload.

[01:16:39] Okay.

[01:16:40] And apparently being able to arrive in locations and hover above them with apparently nothing that could be done about it.

[01:16:49] And apparently we've had that capability.

[01:16:53] And now it's essentially the same idea of Manhattan Project.

[01:16:58] We had the bomb.

[01:16:59] We dropped down Japan.

[01:17:00] And for a short period of time, we were the only ones with it.

[01:17:03] But then Soviet Union caught up.

[01:17:06] And if this has happened and if these are real, what I would say is mutually assured destruction just got more cemented, more firm.

[01:17:19] The chances of a great power ever fighting a great power with this capability are even lower than before in a sense because if that exists and if there's parity in it,

[01:17:33] then it's absolutely inconceivable for either government to go to war with each other because either government and all of its seats of power and all of its secret locations and all of its redundant continuity of operation locations could be just obliterated.

[01:17:50] You don't even have to steer a missile there now.

[01:17:52] So no proof that any of that is real.

[01:17:57] But cigar-shaped UFOs, big black triangles, been reported for a long, long time.

[01:18:05] That's the end of the predictions for the day, future Dan.

[01:18:08] Great show.

[01:18:09] Anything else you want to hit on, predictions or otherwise?

[01:18:12] A little bit exotic at the end there, but let's circle back.

[01:18:16] You know, NBC News is reporting that fluoride lowers IQs.

[01:18:20] And 10 years ago, most people you knew wouldn't believe it, would have scoffed at it, wouldn't have treated it seriously.

[01:18:28] Yet here we are.

[01:18:30] So anti-gravity warships.

[01:18:35] We're, you know, very easily in my mind that technology could be something that's mainstream and well acknowledged in the near future.

[01:18:43] Trump did say in his first term that he was briefed on basically super weapons that were amazing.

[01:18:50] And he didn't go further than that, right?

[01:18:54] But I don't think, you know, gravity is the, you know, gravitational forces are one of the areas of physics that, you know, the theoretical physicist will tell you is, you know,

[01:19:05] at least up until now has been the least understood aspect of physics, natural forces.

[01:19:13] Maybe we had a breakthrough.

[01:19:15] And if we did and it becomes public, look out.

[01:19:19] What is the economic implications for being the first country to introduce some kind of ability, you know,

[01:19:26] at first transport secret weapon systems, but then come out in the clean and, you know, be able to, you know, move commerce, right?

[01:19:35] Think about what we might be on the cusp of in that regard.

[01:19:41] All right.

[01:19:42] Great show.

[01:19:43] Season's off to a nice start.

[01:19:45] Year off to a nice start.

[01:19:47] 290 in the books.

[01:19:49] Future Dan will be back next week, hopefully live.

[01:19:53] But no matter what, we're going to make sure we get shows in the podcast format.

[01:19:59] So be sure to check that out wherever you get it.

[01:20:01] And, uh, Hey, actually, before we leave, I wanted to do a quick plug for prepper broadcasting network.

[01:20:11] Where was it?

[01:20:11] Gosh, I had it here.

[01:20:14] Falling apart at the end.

[01:20:15] Now, here we go.

[01:20:16] Prepper dash broadcasting dash network.

[01:20:21] Right there.

[01:20:21] You can see the URL.

[01:20:22] Not only can you find our shows here, but everybody else is on the network and really, you know, it's great to watch the video that we're going to have.

[01:20:32] But Hey, I know a lot of folks listen to podcasts, wherever you find your podcast, just search prepper broadcasting network.

[01:20:40] You'll find our show and a bunch of others on the network.

[01:20:44] Future Dan.

[01:20:46] Awesome.

[01:20:46] Yep.

[01:20:47] Looking forward to it.

[01:20:48] Looking forward to this year, this season and, um, the board finding out how, where we end up on those predictions, but I'm hope I'm wrong on any percent that I predict on any single one of those.

[01:20:58] Maybe not gold all time high or silver all time high, but I'm going to be able to live with that.

[01:21:03] As long as it doesn't come with a complete collapse of the banking system with it.

[01:21:08] I like that.

[01:21:08] Yeah.

[01:21:09] I don't want the banking system collapse, but I'm prepping for it.

[01:21:13] All right, folks, we're out of here.

[01:21:14] We'll be back next week.

[01:21:17] Patriot power hour signing off.